SAN FRANCISCO—Market research firm IC Insights Inc. lowered its forecast for semiconductor industry growth in 2011, citing a weak global economy.
IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.) said it now projects that global semiconductor revenue will increase 5 percent this year, down from an earlier forecast calling for 10 percent growth. The firm also lowered its projection for 2011 integrated circuit (IC) growth to 4 percent from 10 percent.
In a mid-year update to the firm's McClean Report, IC Insights maintains that a series of economic setbacks—including the March 11 earthquake in Japan, the Arab Spring political uprising in the Middle East, a surge in natural disasters in the U.S. and government debt concerns in the U.S. and Europe—caused quarterly worldwide economic growth to slow significantly in the first half of 2011 as compared to 2010 and in turn served to slow worldwide electronics and semiconductor industry market growth.
"While any of these negative events by themselves may not have had a serious impact, combined, they served to noticeably slow the worldwide economy in the first half of this year," said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, in a research bulletin.
Worldwide GDP figures have been on fairly steep decline since reaching 4.6 percent in 2010, IC Insights said. The second quarter GDP estimate of 3.1 percent is 33 percent lower than it was in the second quarter of 2010 and less than 1 percent over the 2.5 percent global recession mark, IC Insights said.
IC Insights said it expects worldwide GDP growth to be better in the second half of the year than it was in the second half due to post-earthquake investment by Japan and a stronger economy in the U.S.
Also in the mid-year update to the McClean report, IC Insights updated its list of the top 20 semiconductor supplier by revenue in the first half of 2011. Intel Corp. extended its lead over No. 2 chip supplier Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., registering 43 percent better sales than Samsung in the first half of the year, IC Insights said.
Click on image to enlarge.
In total, the top 20 semiconductor suppliers showed
an 8 percent increase in first half sales compared to the first half of
2010, IC Insights said. This growth rate was 4 points better than total
worldwide semiconductor industry growth of 4 percent in the first half
of the year compared to 2010, IC Insights said.
Nvidia Corp. returned to the top 20—supplanting Panasonic Corp.—despite a first half sales increase of only 1 percent compared to 2010, IC Insights said.
Hi Dylan - the latest, monthly run of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales likewise came in at 5.0 percent for 2011's sales growth expectation.
The updated model run reflects the WSTS's June actual sales number of $27.11 billion published on Aug 3rd. The latest calculated sales growth result dropped 1.7 percentage points from last month's prediction of 6.7 percent. The latest 2011 global sales is projected to $313.4 billion and dropped from last month's forecast estimate of $318.4 billion.
Looks like many of the major semi industry market watchers are llkewise "zeroing in" on a 5 percent growth forecast for 2011 with many of them lowering their estimates over the past month or so.
Mike Cowan, independent semi industry analyst and ddeveloper of the Cowan LRA forecast model
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