LONDON – Japan's chip exports getting back on track faster than expected after the Great Quake and Tsunami of March 2011 has exposed double-ordering of components and caused a slump in chip orders as distributors try to de-stock, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
The three-month average of global chip sales for August is going to be reported as $24.4 billion by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, down on the $24.9 billion reported for July, Diesen said.
This would be an exceptional sequential fall as the three-month moving average has climbed in August compared with July in all but one (2001) of the last ten years.
"We think there was destocking at distributors due to uncertainty about the world economy, plus unwinding of extra inventory bought in the first months after the Japanese earthquake," said Diesen in a note to clients.
He said that Japanese chip exports rose sharply in July, but the quicker than expected recovery had revealed that many customers double ordered in the months after the earthquake. "Ironically, the rebound in Japan’s exports in July probably prompted many customers to cancel orders in August," Diesen said.
The PC market is probably affected due to high inventories at Acer and HP, Diesen said. The market for semiconductors for low-end handsets and automotive were likely among the more robust sectors.
Diesen is sticking with his annual global chip market dollar growth forecast for 2011 of 4 percent, but said that if August comes in as expected and September does not improve a cut will be necessary.
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