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More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc

9/27/2011 01:05 AM EDT
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loptide
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
loptide   9/27/2011 1:21:48 AM
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Looks like it's time to start planning that solar installation at home!

agk
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
agk   9/27/2011 9:25:01 AM
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if china will over produce after some time if the sale is not possible then they also need to wind up.so after some time there will be a balance maintained to meet the supply demand positon.Impotant to see is how to increase the usage of these at each and every place.if at all 25 watts can be produced in one square foot area then many applications can be brought in.

KB3001
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
KB3001   9/29/2011 12:34:03 PM
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The depletion of old energy sources will not make such balancing easy. I believe solar will be the most economical source of energy in the not too distant future.

Kinnar
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
Kinnar   9/27/2011 10:47:34 AM
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I think this is a game of playing with the profits only, the companies should look towards environment benefits as well, as the entire world is looking for an alternative energy source and the over supplies of solar cells is resulting, that should increase the usage of the solar cells and more solar farms should come up. If the companies reduce the price of the solar cells, this is surely going happen.

yalanand
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
yalanand   10/3/2011 11:39:05 AM
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I am not sure if companies are so generous that they will reduce the prices for environment benefit sake. Most of the companies are in this business just to make profit. May be government can give some tax breaks to these companies so that they can pass on that benefit to the end customer.

elctrnx_lyf
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
elctrnx_lyf   9/27/2011 12:02:00 PM
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The price can not be reduced lesser than a certain point as long as it is operated by the private industries. Rather the governments should take initiative to give benefits to the individual customers who use the solar energy.

qerqwe
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
qerqwe   9/27/2011 8:54:18 PM
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NO, Keep the government out of it. Currently market forces are much, much more efficent than any government subsidy. Let the market work!

dirk.bruere
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
dirk.bruere   9/27/2011 9:29:48 PM
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In case you have not noticed, China is using govt subsidy to wipe out everyone else's PV industry very efficiently

KB3001
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
KB3001   9/29/2011 12:34:49 PM
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It is a question of balance , indeed.

Jack.L
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
Jack.L   9/27/2011 1:09:53 PM
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If you look at it from a value of inventory standpoint, the inventory growth is not as astounding as it first seems. At a $1.00/watt, that is only $20billion in inventory at the end of 2012 which is not that far from where it was at some point this year.

Jack.L
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
Jack.L   9/27/2011 1:19:13 PM
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And realistically this could be considered good news for Solar Energy production, just not good news for Solar Panel makers. Does anyone buying a PC care (other than positive) when DRAM prices crash? ... nope.

wilber_xbox
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
wilber_xbox   9/27/2011 1:36:33 PM
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What business model/strategy Chinese manufacturer are using. It looks like a gamble where the stakes are already high but people keep playing until someone drops out. I am sure Chinese company can not keep pushing the price lower as this will hurt them the same.

GREAT-Terry
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
GREAT-Terry   9/27/2011 3:04:38 PM
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Is there a good ecosystem for the solar power generation? The price of solar panel is relatively high so the power generated is expensive. No single person would like to pay the bill. I'm wonder if there is another way out beside Government subsidy.

KB3001
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
KB3001   9/29/2011 12:35:57 PM
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The forces of nature. With the depletion of traditional energy sources, we'll have to switch to something else otherwise we'll starve. Cheap energy is something of the past.

dirk.bruere
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
dirk.bruere   9/27/2011 7:53:06 PM
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Good news for buyers though. It seems that maybe the PV market is starting to look like commodity semiconductors, with its constant boom-bust cycles. In a way, that's good news.

sharps_eng
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
sharps_eng   9/27/2011 11:10:26 PM
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Crude - that's the word for the way production is regulated. We have a factory full of 16-bit analog, u-sec timed controllers, finely tuned processes - and a production schedule that a blindfold gorilla could do better. What are all those smart sales, marketing, and finance people doing? I admit production lines are like supertankers, not very manoeverable, so its sometimes better to keep them clean and running than to stop and foul up the process. A bit like steelmaking?

Sameer_SD
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
Sameer_SD   9/28/2011 12:24:54 AM
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Does anyone know low the prices of crystalline-Si panels can fall in light of this oversupply? I think they are currently close to ~$1/W wholesale ...

Dave.Dykstra
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
Dave.Dykstra   9/28/2011 4:27:51 AM
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Overproduction should have been obvious with the rush to get production on line a couple of years ago when it seemed like everyone wanted in on the action. Now that they have it, they're looking for a way out. But then maybe the overproduction and resulting drop in prices will stimulate some more growth in installations. The industry is far from mature at this point, so we should expect to see some ups and downs.

prabhakar_deosthali
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
prabhakar_deosthali   9/28/2011 6:35:02 AM
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Indirectly this overproduction and the resulting lower prices will pull more customers to the Solar option. This will result in a permanent increase in the demand in the long run. So in my opinion there is no reason for the manufacturers to panic .

KB3001
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
KB3001   9/29/2011 12:37:26 PM
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Correct, it could be a virtuous circle, but prices should not fall below a tipping point for that to happen.

resistion
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
resistion   9/28/2011 8:42:42 AM
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Mandatory vacations at PV makers are in order.

vri
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
vri   9/28/2011 7:17:41 PM
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could the low prices be due to dumping by the state-funded Chinese vendors to drive out the VC-funded companies? (such things have happened in the past with memories for example.) Consumers may benefit short term from the lower price, but the prices will go up once the competition is gone. And consumers lose even more longer term as there is no competition to push technology improvements for a competitive edge.

prokaryote
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
prokaryote   10/2/2011 12:46:59 PM
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Definitely! I used to work for a PV manufacture and I raised the point at an all hands engineering meeting that our competition was not any one specific company, it was China, more specifically the Bank of China. This was 1.5 years ago and the response I got was a blank look and a retort that it was an unsustainable business model. I replied that it doesn't have to be sustainable, just last long enough to drive the non-subsidized competition into bankruptcy. Again the blank stare and a change of subject. I bailed from that company! People need to understand the rules of the game as they are, not as they wish them to be. Free market in a global environment is wishful/magical thinking. Need to adapt to the current paradigm of a fusion of state sponsored "free market" or perish when your industry comes into the cross hairs. Good luck to those that remain!

LarryM99
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
LarryM99   9/29/2011 5:54:39 PM
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The first crunch comes when oversupply forces price drops, which is what we are seeing here. The second one comes when all of the low-hanging fruit is taken in terms of installations. Remember that these things have twenty years or so of (admittedly declining) production. Unless there are significant technology breakthroughs that can increase that obsolescence we won't be seeing the first replacements for a decade or more. Larry M.

yalanand
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re: More bad news for solar: Oversupply havoc
yalanand   10/3/2011 11:33:52 AM
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I feel this is temporary phenomenon. After Nuclear crisis in Japan demand for renewable energy has gone up. Even countries like France and Germany have decided to move away from nuclear energy. Ultimately this will lead to huge demand for solar modules.

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