SEVILLE, Spain – Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with market analysis company Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England), now sees 2011 as essentially a flat year compared with 2010 for the global chip market.
Penn, organizer of the International Electronics Forum being held here, who had given a forecast at the beginning of the year of around 9 percent, told the audience that the market had been knocked off course by a series of factors.
One was the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on March 11. A second was the removal of over $1 billion from 2011 sales by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization at about the same time.
The market now hinges on September and Q3 sales numbers said Penn. He predicted sequential growth in Q3 of about 1 percent, which with a typical flattish fourth quarter would yield annual growth of between a 1 percent decline and 2 percent growth. However, Penn also said that there could be upside with 3 percent sequential growth in the third quarter and further modest growth in the fourth quarter.
For 2012 Penn predicted an 8 percent growth year followed by 22 percent growth in 2013.