LONDON -- Malcolm Penn, founder and chief analyst with semiconductor market analysis firm Future Horizons Ltd., has predicted that the global chip market will rise on an annual basis by 8 percent to $323.2 billion in 2012. Penn said that after a flat first quarter he expected the chip market to bounce back in the second half of the year.
This high single-digit percentage growth is a "safe bet," said Penn who indicated that annual growth "could easily be 20 percent." He argued that the fundamentals of the industry favored a rebound after 2011 had been derailed by natural disasters in Japan and Thailand and global economic uncertainty.
Penn said that it looked like 2011 would show close to zero growth -- 0.3 percent -- with global chip sales revenue of $299.2 billion. "Again we are not going to beat the $300 billion number," Penn said.
For 2013 Future Horizons is even more bullish. Penn forecast 20 percent annual growth, arguing that end-user demand remains strong globally due to an ascendant Asian and Chinese middle-class hungry for electronic goods that will maintain the long-term 11 percent annual rise in shipment volumes. In addition, Average selling prices (ASPs) for ICs have been creeping up for several quarters, Penn said.
An in the near term companies have been running their supply chains almost empty and must start to rebuild inventories, Penn argued. The actual figure for growth in 2012 – whether it is 8, 10 percent or more partly depends on when these positives come to bear.
Penn is more bullish than most other market analysts. Handel Jones of International Business Strategies forecasts the chip market contracting in 2012 after a 6 to 7 percent rise in 2012. IC Insights expects the semiconductor industry to grow about 7 percent in 2012 while Mike Cowan estimate for 2012 is 5.9 percent growth referenced off a 2011 sales forecast estimate of $301.16 billion.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization is forecasting 2.6 percent annual growth in 2012; IHS iSuppli predicts 3.2 percent growth and Gartner Inc. predicts 2.2 percent growth. Morris Chang, the much listened to chairman and CEO of TSMC has recently predicted the total market will grow by 2 percent.
Well Malcom Penn's prediction for 2012 was off by 100% at 4% instead of the 8% he predicted. Does anyone listen to this guy anymore....if so...why? If his market predictions were monetary based, he'd been broke a couple years ago.
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