LONDON Ė The three-month average of global chip sales for December is going to be reported by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization as $24.1 billion, according to a prediction from Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway), based on data models.
This will be down from a three-month average of $25.13 billion in November, but the dip will be less than the typical seasonal norm and offers the prospect of a market turn to coincide with the end of the year.
Actual December sales will be down 5.5 percent year-on-year at about $25.1 billion, Diesen said. Diesen figures take global chip sales in 2011 to about $300 billion, flat with 2010 global chip sales.
Diesen sees light at the end of 2011 with a rebound in Chinese personal and tablet computer production and technology production rebounding in Thailand as flooding-effected plants come back on stream.
"Our early indicator shows the three-month average of chips falling much less than normal in December," said Diesen.
China exported 83 million mobile phone handsets in November, up 20 percent year on year and the country produced a record number of PCs in December, jumping after 4 months of flat production, Diesen said. Meanwhile automotive electronics continues to motor along, being better than expected for the fifth straight month in December, he added.
Nonetheless Diesen stuck with an earlier prediction of unchanged semiconductor sales in US dollar terms in 2011, followed by a 2 percent rise in 2012. This is somewhat bearish but in-line with the recent forecast given by Morris Chang, chairman and CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
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