LONDON – Actual global chip sales for May 2012 are likely to be reported at about 3 percent lower than the same month in 2011, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
The analyst has also revised down to flat his estimate for how the global chip market will perform in 2012 compared with 2011, falling in line with forecasts from the Semiconductor Industry Association and World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization. Diesen said he expects semiconductor sales to be unchanged this year and rise 7 percent in 2013 whereas previously he had forecast semiconductor sales in 2012 would show a 2 percent increase in dollars compared with 2011.
Diesen's estimate for May would be a return to a year-on-year decline after April 2012 actual global sales at $23.85 billion were 1.1 percent ahead actual global sales in April 2011.
Diesen predicted that the three-month average chip sales in May will be reported at $24.2 billion, slightly up on an equivalent figure in April of $24.1 billion.
"Handset chips probably were one area that weakened in May after a strong April," Diesen said.
I think the conventional wisdom is that "normal" growth in global GDP of a few percent should produce semiconductor market growth of between 5 and 10 percent.
So it would seem that Bruce Diesen is not predicting a boost but a return to normal.
Perhaps he thinks the U.S. and European debt crises will be less stultifying by then. I dont think they will have gone away, but perhaps the global economy will be more used to them.