Gartner estimates that the total R&D cost of 450-mm tool development will cost about $17 billion cumulatively, about $2 billion of which is being spent this year, Johnson said. He noted that other estimates for the development cost differ widely, from about $10 billion at the low end to as much as $25 billion to $40 billion at the high end.
"We aren't going to know what the [real] numbers are until we start getting some of these tools together and start putting them in production," Johnson said.
Johnson added that he believes the transition to 450-mm wafers is inevitable and predicted that the top 10 wafer fab equipment suppliers would contribute 80 percent of the R&D required to support the transition.
Dieseldorff said SEMI estimates that total spending on front end chip fabs in 2012—including both fab construction and cost of equipment—will be between $59 billion and $60 billion, roughly flat with 2011. SEMI expects spending on front end fabs to grow 2 percent to 5 percent in 2013 to between $61 billion and $63 billion, he said.
SEMI estimates that total fab equipment spending, including discrete IC fabs, will total about $38.9 billion in 2012, roughly flat with 2011, Dieseldorff said. The trade group estimates that fab equipment spending will increase 20 percent in 2013 to $46.8 billion, he said.
Meanwhile, the estimated amount of spending on fab construction is expected to be slightly more than $6 billion in both 2012 and 2013, down from about $6.25 billion in 2011, Dieseldorff said. He added that the expectations for fab construction investment have increased in recent months with new projects announced by the likes of TSMC, Samsung, United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) and others. "The outlook for construction spending has improved dramatically" from previous estimates of double-digit declines, he said.
Despite pressure on the Japanese semiconductor industry in recent years, Japan continues to have more chip fabs than any other region, Dieseldorff said. By 2017, the total number of chips fabs in Japan is projected to decline to 105, down from 152 in 2007, Dieseldorff said. The number of fabs located in the Americas, which has the second highest number of fabs of all regions, is forecast to fall to 95 in 2017, down from 123 in 2007, he said.
It's all up in the air BUT what is different is that this is a game for far fewer players than it was at 300-mm and that concentrates the expense in relatively few pockets.
Could that make it a transition too far?
@Dylan: the "...the transition to 450-mm wafers is inevitable..." is only true to some, not all. I believe the number will be a small one. Given this, how are the 10 wafer fab equipment suppliers fund that 80 percent of the R&D required to support the transition?
Interesting forecast on the fab demography in 2017...
Thanks MP. I agree with you, and I suspect that Bob Johnson of Gartner would agree also. There will be only a few companies that move to 450. As far as how they will fund it, I suspect that we saw an example of that yesterday, when Intel announced it would take a stake in ASML and provide additional funding for 450-mm and EUV development. This is the way I think it has to be, because the tool vendors themselves are not going to be able to afford all of the R&D on their own.
Not sure that ASML should set the standard for all tool vendors, though I'm sure any vendor will now like to ask for upfront $$ to fund R+D. Regarding 450mm photo development, it seems we're really talking EUV. I believe there are some toolsets like implant that face significant challenges to upsize from 300mm to 450mm, but I would think that this asml example will be the exception, not the rule.
I am with you. I think every tool maker would like to get money up front for 450-mm development. But I am not sure that that many are negotiating from ASML's position of strength in lithography. Sadly, in more competitive equipment markets, bearing the cost of 450-mm development may be table stakes.
What is also interestng is what happens to 300-mm wafer fabs when the leading-edge digital logic and memory ICs are made in a very few 450-mm megafabs.
History teaches that the 300-mm fabs will become the domain of More-than-Moore, trailing-edge digital, 57 varieties of analog, mixed-signal, image sensors, MEMS and so on.
And most 200-mm wafer factories will probably become economically unviable if they are trying to compete with larger 300-mm wafer fabs.
The result will be a complete changing of the order.
And then, talking with the Cymer folks, their EUV teech will be rolling out before 450mm is ready, even on the most optimistic predictions, which could increase yields on 300mm enough to make 450mm unnecessary in the short term.
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