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Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era

9/4/2012 08:19 PM EDT
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HUK
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
HUK   9/7/2012 3:42:33 PM
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IMHO tablets and PCs have well defined roles although the division line has blurry edges: Tablet: content fruition PC: content production 2 years ago I made everything with a PC. Now I find much quicker to _check_ e-mail with my smartphone/tablet, to _watch_ a YouTube video on my smartphone/tablet, to _have a peek at_ a web site with a tablet. ... but still prefer to _write_ e-mail, _edit_ family videos, _accessing_ the home banking server with a PC. The fact that many actions once performed with a PC are much better experiences (read: quicker) on a tablet/smartphone (think about waiting the PC to boot just to read an e-mail) are removing some (a lot of) market share from Wintel alliance... OS importance plummeted, it became just a commodity, but battery life now is paramount: a tablet with wires sucks.

Wnderer
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
Wnderer   9/6/2012 4:41:35 PM
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PCs like TVs have reached market saturation. Tablets and smart phones haven't. This doesn't mean that PCs are going away. How many people own a tablet or a smart phone but don't own a PC or a TV?

MindTech
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
MindTech   9/6/2012 3:38:39 PM
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I've said it before, and I'll probably say it again: A tablet is a better device for content consumption, a PC/laptop is a better device for content production. At this moment I'd rather write a book on a laptop. I'd rather watch a youtube video on a tablet. The issue is that for most media 90% are consumers and 10% are producers. When you generalize a bit more, and take into account that everyone produces something on a computer/tablet (even if it's just a facebook post or email) then the numbers start to shift a little: more like 70% are light producers, 30% are heavy producers. The tablet is doing something amazing though: it it is putting a connected device in the hands of people who are too scared to attempt the more "complicated" computer. It is training them and letting them access content and community that they never would before. And for some it's acting as a gateway device to more powerful devices. Those who find they like creating light content often branch into more content production and require a better device. On the other hand it is also acting as an augmentation for those who are already tech savvy. How many tech-capable people are starting to get a tablet for portable display of work, or easy collaboration, or mobile note-taking. It's becoming a device of enablement that allows them to to take their work with them and easily connect back to the technology they left at their desk: it's an extension. Intel (x86) will, for the foreseeable future, have a place as the powerhouse that gets things done. And MS will continue to make the operating system that runs most of the corporate world. And if Win8 plays out well, they will build a synergy between mobile and powerful devices that will allow for easier creation, transportation, and sharing of content. Because let's face it, the biggest problem with mobile/desktop collaboration is getting the data from one to the other, or finding apps that are interoperable on both.

cescharlau
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
cescharlau   9/6/2012 2:20:43 PM
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I think it is not an apples and oranges comparison - the PC and tablet are basically the same fruit. Instead I think the comparison is between apples and apple fritters. We've known how to eat the PC fruit for decades, just hack into it with a keyboard and mouse and observe your results on the big screen. The cell phone and tablet are essentially computers, but with sensors and network connectivity baked in. The old keyboard and mouse tools are bigger, clumsier, and more power hungry than the devices they would connect to, and just are not suitable for interacting with mobile devices. The post PC era will ignite like apples flambee once we have the right human interface(s) for mobile devices.

jaybus0
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
jaybus0   9/6/2012 12:10:08 PM
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That is one way of looking at it. Another is that a 29% decline in market share in combination with a doubling of the total market means that Intel's total business grows by 40%.

sprite0022
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
sprite0022   9/6/2012 7:38:45 AM
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guys, if more chinese white box $50 tablet starts to invade US, you ll see laptop business just collapse like a snowball. a tablet won't need to cost %200, $50, or maybe $80 will do the job.

jackOfManyTrades
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
jackOfManyTrades   9/6/2012 7:15:46 AM
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Bert et al: you are right that tablets, smart-phones etc cannot do as much as a PC, but you seem to miss the point that the things that PCs do better are things that most of us do rarely in a home environment. The things we use Tablets and smartphones for (browsing, email, shopping) are things that we used to use the PC for, but now don't have to.

DWilde10
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
DWilde10   9/6/2012 1:44:44 AM
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{disclosure: I work for Intel; my opinions are my own and do not represent the company's perspective} I personally have been off Windows for fifteen years, with most of my machines running FreeBSD or Linux, including my productivity machines. The reason I point this out is that everybody, including the ARM folks and smartphone and tablet makers, has been a beneficiary of the huge leaps in process technology and volume manufacturing that Wintel made possible. I absolutely giggle with delight at the horsepower in my several-generations old 1st generation 4-core Inspiron. For the longest time everybody desperately clung to the 'PC compatible' Wintel formula precisely because it was so successful. Doing anything else was a ticket to obscurity or possibly suicide. I would also point out that IBM's failure to protect its design IP was a fortuitous blessing that made it all grow. Were IBM Apple, the computing future would have been far different, and that's a question worth some serious rumination. What's happening now is that Intel continues to forge ahead in manufacturing technology -- semiconductor, process AND fab -- and the other guys are struggling and blustering about catching up. Intel has bought a lot of key pieces of IP with its war chest, including the former Infineon's analog expertise, and the company is already preparing to stuff its new *14nm* fabs with equipment paid for by the still-huge *global* PC and server markets. Couple that with the drastic reduction in leakage and heat caused by the full-depletion transistors in Tri-Gate technology, and anybody but an idiot stock analyst has got to know that Chipzilla has just begun to play. None of which means I disagree with most of iSuppli's comments, it's just that it's such old news. The future will carry us far beyond QWERTY versus consumption very quickly. It's absolutely true that Wintel as a formula is waning but don't count Intel ... or MS for that matter... out so quickly.

rick merritt
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
rick merritt   9/6/2012 12:33:02 AM
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The iSuppli analysis is interesting but speculative. They don't know what Intel or Msoft will do to win a position in tablets and smartphones over the next few years or what other inevitable twists and turns are ahead that will mess with their linear projections. That said, Wintel has been poorly aligned with some of the main vectors of mobile computing for awhile. Despite that, there also is still plenty of market and some growth ahead for years to come in Wintel notebooks, servers and even PCs.

Bert22306
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re: Wintel dominance seen waning in post-PC era
Bert22306   9/5/2012 8:41:19 PM
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Yes, perhaps, but my point is that this is a meaningless statistic. It all depends what appliances you decide to lump into "market share." For example, I could make the case that the Wintel market share has fallen way more dramatically. Why? Because now there are microprocessors embedded in just about any home appliance, from your refrigerator, washer and drier, to the remotely displaying water meter. And none of these are Wintel. Not to mention baby toys and those audio greeting cards. So the field has grown tremendously. Tablets and smartphones may replace some functions that were previously done on PCs, like reading newspaper articles, but they are still not able to do much of what school kids and adults need PCs for.

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