LONDON – The global chip market will contract by 0.5 percent in 2012 and then increase by 7.7 percent in 2013, according to market analyst Mike Cowan.
Cowan has updated his linear regression analysis (LRA) model of the global chip market with the latest data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.
Cowan said the model now predicts global third quarter chip sales of $78.913 billion, up 1.9 percent on 3Q11 and 4Q12 sales of $76.265 billion up 6.7 percent on 4Q11. However, this will not be enough annual growth to overcome a recessionary 1H12. As a result the chip market will total $298.026 billion in 2012, down 0.5 percent on 2011.
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For 2013, Cowan is forecasting sequential quarterly global chip sales figures of $74.167 billion, $76.280 billion, $88.885 billion and $81.765 billion to arrive at a total of $321.097 billion, up 7.7 percent on 2012.
For comparison the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization and the Semiconductor Industry Association are forecasting 0.45 percent growth in 2012 followed by 7.2 percent growth in 2013, Cowan said. Analyst Bruce Diesen of Carnegie
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