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Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push

12/6/2012 08:30 PM EST
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resistion
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
resistion   12/7/2012 6:11:45 AM
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The margin per transistor may rise (compensating higher cost) if the power per transistor is lower. But even this scaling will be limited as well, by noise. 20 nm is already very small (anybody recall the electron mean free path?)

song-chou-1
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
song-chou-1   12/7/2012 12:42:23 PM
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I attended and McGregor also said "20nm costing more will surprise market" that is partly because Intel Marketing is talking different message But I spoke to someone in Intel Procurement Group about why they are taping out LTE and RF mobile chips at TSMC 28nm. Intel guy said Intel's advanced internal nodes manufacturing (22 and 14nm) was not cost effective with foundry. low cost mobile chips are going go stay at 28nm for industry and even Intel (using outside manufacturing)

rick merritt
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
rick merritt   12/7/2012 2:43:49 PM
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Thanks Song Chou. That strongly suggests Intel is not ready to supply foundry services to anything but cost insensitive parts such as FPGAs and router ASICs

the_floating_ gate
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
the_floating_ gate   12/7/2012 4:21:04 PM
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Take a look at wafer price projections (past and future) Nvidia deeply unhappy with TSMC, claims 20nm essentially worthless http://www.extremetech.com/computing/123529-nvidia-deeply-unhappy-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless ASML stated just litho will be 1.7x for 20nm compared to 28nm

rick merritt
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
rick merritt   12/7/2012 4:54:52 PM
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Of course, double patterning will raise costs even if all else was the same

resistion
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
resistion   12/7/2012 5:03:59 PM
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Well to be exact not every layer is double patterned. It's not automatic doubling of chip cost. It will be diluted by large number of non-doubled metal layers.

the_floating_ gate
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
the_floating_ gate   12/7/2012 8:43:34 PM
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I thought Peter's article about Gloflo trying to break even in 2015 is pretty sobering. It raises the question of how good are TSMC's 28nm margin during the first 12 months - TSMC has the advantage to make huge profits off legacy technology - Gloflo does not. In the past Intel (and also AMD) used depreciated equipment to manufacture NOR flash - perhaps 32nm Medfield is using similar approach being fabbed with more or less depreciated 45nm equipment. Paul O. made also some comments about foundry bizz during Bernstein presentation - no intention to compete with TSMC rather focusing on "value" deals without compromising the core business.

the_floating_ gate
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
the_floating_ gate   12/8/2012 3:32:27 AM
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But I spoke to someone in Intel Procurement Group about why they are taping out LTE and RF mobile chips at TSMC 28nm. Intel guy said Intel's advanced internal nodes manufacturing (22 and 14nm) was not cost effective with foundry. Maybe this has to do with opportunity cost

BJ-5
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
BJ-5   12/7/2012 3:12:24 PM
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Rick, 100% correct. Intel's manufacturing for foundry and internal products only is viable due to cost for it's $100-1000 CPU and select high margin FPGA and ASICs. Someday the analysis will understand Intel does not have a manufacturing advantage for cost sensitive mobile or foundry to Apple.

rick merritt
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
rick merritt   12/7/2012 4:54:24 PM
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What's the implication for Intel's own mobile SoCs aka Medfield and follow ons?

BJ-5
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
BJ-5   12/7/2012 8:05:24 PM
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Rick, Implication for Intel's first 22nm Valley view (Atom SOC) will have somewhere in the neighborhood 30-40% higher cost than equal parts from Qualcomm (snapdragon) or nVidia (Tegra 4) fabricated parts in foundry 28LP or 28HPM but bigger problem is TAM is moving to integrated apps and base band on single SOC. Valley view not having on die integrated LTE base band makes it uninteresting to market

song-chou-1
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
song-chou-1   12/7/2012 8:33:22 PM
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Rick, I look at it like this. You can chip 28nm SOC with integrated application/base band processor now or you can ship same transistor density chips in Intel's 22nm SOC in 2014 but only application processor It should be clear why Intel is loosing in mobile and CEO is out.

the_floating_ gate
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
the_floating_ gate   12/8/2012 3:21:05 AM
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"Implication for Intel's first 22nm Valley view (Atom SOC) will have somewhere in the neighborhood 30-40% higher cost than equal parts from Qualcomm (snapdragon) or nVidia (Tegra 4) fabricated parts in foundry 28LP or 28HPM" I am curious how you came up with this number 30 to 40% What's Valley View die size? BRCM just reiterated NVDA's dim projection that Moore's law is slowing down significantly for the foundries and TI probably exited the mobile business for the very same reason. GloFlo breaking even in 2015? Very impressive Disclosure : heavily invested in arms - I mean arms supplied by KLAC, LRCX & NVLS (double patterning) and ASML

BJ-5
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
BJ-5   12/8/2012 2:09:46 PM
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To: the_floating_gate, Cost numbers come from our competitive analysis group . Has a program that calculated cost from die size, wafer, test and packaging cost. Valley view die sizes are still all under NDA. But we know there are two version 2 or 4 cores and parts and the parts use ivy brige 2C graphic unit (~30mm^2 silicon area). The Atom cores will be about .8X smaller in 22 vs 32nm. Thus die size are is range 60-80mm^2

resistion
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
resistion   12/8/2012 2:48:07 PM
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I've had my suspicions intel's 22 nm added trigate process steps won't be cheaper than foundry 28 nm either.

resistion
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
resistion   12/8/2012 2:52:56 PM
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The fin pitch is 60 nm which is sublithographic, so requires double patterning. It's just one layer, but look at the gate and isolation pitches they are around 90 nm, which is also what foundry 28 nm offers. It's hard to argue that for this particular comparison, Intel has a cheaper process. Maybe they got performance and yield (which is another major cost factor).

any1
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
any1   12/10/2012 3:48:50 PM
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I think that IDMs like Intel and Samsung still have an edge over the foundries due to their better integrated process technologies. I don't know that being 30% more expensive for an applications processor is such a big deal for Intel in the grand scheme of things either as long as the performance (both speed and low power) is there. The foundries will catch up eventually but it will take several more years.

krisi
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
krisi   12/10/2012 5:18:22 PM
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20nm transistor costing more?! This should had sent shock waves thru this industry...time to start packing and heading for the exit? ;-)

resistion
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re: Broadcom sees rising 20 nm costs amid handset push
resistion   12/11/2012 12:49:35 PM
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At 10 nm, probably half of the layers are double patterning, the other half is single-patterned, and only the fin layer is quadruple patterned. So this is maybe 50% extra cost, but the density is improved maybe 4X, so the cost per transistor is still reduced, just not as much.

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