LONDON – For the second month in a row, strong growth in the Americas region pushed the three-month average of worldwide semiconductor sales to increase at above typical seasonal rates. The averaged sales reached $25.73 billion in November 2012, up 2.0 percent from October 2012 and up 2.0 percent from November 2011, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group.
The Americas region sales of chips in November showed a sequential
growth of 5.1 percent and annual growth of 9.7 percent. Growth in the
Americas and Asia-Pacific regions more than made up for weakness in
Europe and Japan (see chart below). However, what appears set to be a growth fourth quarter is still unlikely to overcome the weakness of the first nine months of 2012 or overturn the SIA's prediction that the 2012 chip market will contract compared with 2011.
"The global semiconductor industry navigated difficult macroeconomic conditions in 2012, but encouraging growth led by the Americas in recent months has the industry pointed in the right direction heading into 2013," said Brian Toohey, president and CEO of the SIA, in a statement. "To ensure that the industry’s momentum continues, Congress should remove ongoing economic uncertainty by enacting long-term, reliable fiscal policies that boost America’s economic strength and global competitiveness."
Monthly data is given by the SIA as a three-month average although the source of the data, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, tracks actual monthly data. The SIA and other regional semiconductor industry bodies opt to use averaged data because it smoothes out the actual data that typically show troughs at the beginnings of the quarters and peaks at the ends of the quarters.
Click on image to enlarge.
Global three-month average chip sales for November 2012 by region in U.S. dollar billions. Source SIA.
"To ensure that the industry’s momentum continues, Congress should remove ongoing economic uncertainty by enacting long-term, reliable fiscal policies that boost America’s economic strength and global
I take it SIA president Brian Toohey has a new outlook based on the actual outcome of the so-called fiscal cliff "deal". Instead of what he wanted we got more taxes and a total punt on debt.
I really wanted to find the news below which seems a contradictory indicator:
So, with this information in mind, from the two articles, can we not conclude that the increased sales after Q3 (pre holiday season) in Q4 is a sign of stockpilling? They (the OEMs) read the news, they know the semi test equipment sales is at low so it means the semiconductor manufacturers are depressing their production (situation encountered few years ago) so OEMs did what any of us would do, run to reload their stock of parts. Not that they would see growing economic activity, but simply to refuel the inventory levels which are anyway kept at decreasing quantities.
All the figures given by SIA are three-month average figures.
The first set compares the three-month moving average (3MMA) for Nov. 2012 with 3MMA for Oct. 2012.
The second set compares 3MMA for Nov. 2012 with 3MMA for Nov. 2011.
The third set compares 3MMA for Nov. 2012 with 3MMA for Aug. 2011.
SIA does not distribute actual sales numbers because they are prone to peaks and troughs. The WSTS does publish actual numbers.
If I take this data and convert it to actual sales and compare months it looks like October and November are showing 7.2% and 8.3% growth versus the same months last year. That is great news especially when considering the previous 5 months all showed negative "growth".
Not sure I understand what the difference is between month-to-month, year-to-year and three-month-moving average in your chart, particularly when the November number are identical for all three.
Not sure which bits you think are great news....there are a few things going on here.
Bear in mind that increased market value can come about from either increased unit sales or increased average selling prices, or a combination of the two.
So a growing market could imply that component buyers might be being asked to pay more for their chips...which, for component buyers, is bad news.