MENLO PARK, Calif. – Intel, ARM and others are on a fairly even footing in the still emerging Internet of Things that will surpass 25 billion units and $4 trillion in 2020, a market watcher said. International Data Corp. aims to help form a trade association to provide education on the market it believes could ship 11 billion units using 20 billion processor cores by 2017.
“We think there’s potential for more growth, but we are being conservative and even then the volumes are very large,” said Mario Morales, a senior analyst with IDC at an annual Smart Technology World conference here.
Morales used the term intelligent systems to define the rising class of secure embedded systems that can host an operating system and run native and cloud apps. It’s a term Intel also has adopted, describing an area others refer to as the Internet of Things or machine-to-machine communications.
“We think there’s still a lot of confusion out there in IoT and M2M,” Morales said, adding he expects an intelligent systems ecosystem association to launch with a Web site in about six months. “We will base this group on fundamental research,” he said.
The prediction of 25 billion intelligent systems only includes devices using 32-bit microprocessors. It excludes microcontroller-based embedded systems and sensor nodes, Morales added.
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IDC predicts so-called intelligent systems will outpace growth and volume of embedded systems.
It will be quite an interesting battle between x86 and ARM. I could certainly see Intel eventually getting down to the tablet and smart phone levels of power consumption and cost - or at least close - but I can't see them going below that.
The cut off point between "microcontroller-based embedded systems and sensor nodes" and an IOT device will be up for a debate that will influence this market quite a bit. For example, if a device consists of a small 32-bit ARM and a WiFi module, with a total bill of material cost of $15.00, is it too small to be considered IOT.
What if that device is connected to your garage door so you can check status and open and close it remotely? I'd call that an IOT device even though it would quite likely be possible with 8 or 16 bit MCUs.
if x86 only focus only server and high margin, it is going to be another IBM.
Leaving $5-$10 chips on the table is the most dangerous things for x86.
MIPS and PowerPC will not penetrate unless management drastically come up with some real value...
Join our online Radio Show on Friday 11th July starting at 2:00pm Eastern, when EETimes editor of all things fun and interesting, Max Maxfield, and embedded systems expert, Jack Ganssle, will debate as to just what is, and is not, and embedded system.