MUNICH, Germany The market for automotive networking nodes will grow at a pace of 14 percent annually to almost $1 billion, predicts market researcher Strategy Analytics. However, not all protocols will have a chance to get under the hood of future cars.
Driven by the trend to comfort, entertainment and safety, the deployment of networks in cars will continue throughout the entire foreseeable future. While the global market for automotive network nodes represented a value of $344 million in 2006, it will expand to $975 million in 2014, predicts Strategy Analytics. The market expansion takes place in the conflicting fields of user demand, price pressure and the industry's endeavor to keep complexity at bay.
The CAN bus, while quite an old technology, will be able to defend and even increase its market share, says Strategy Analytics. Proprietary protocols, an evanescent minority already now, will disappear by 2009 at latest, the study predicts. Similarly, the SAE J1850 interface definition will vanish.
On the winning side, Strategy Analytics sees LIN/J2602 and SBW (Safe-by-wire), a group of protocols used to connect airbag sensors and actuators. However, BMW's venerable Byteflight protocol as probably the most prominent member of this group is already about to be phased out. Also FlexRay will continue its upward trend, beginning about 2010. The MOST bus used to connect multimedia devices is also expected to gain significantly market share.