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Chip Market Projected to Grow 7%

7/30/2013 07:50 AM EDT
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Cowan LRA Model
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Cowan LRA Forecasting Model's 2013 And 2014 Sales Growth Expectations
Cowan LRA Model   7/30/2013 3:42:30 PM
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Hi Dylan - the latest Cowan LRA Model's global semiconductor sales growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 came in at 4.0 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively. These results are derived from May's sales numbers as posted by WSTS in their monthly (May 2013) HBR which I shared with you back at the beginning of July. These sales growth results correspond to yearly sales forecasts of $303.2 billion and $320.6 billion for 2013 and 2014, respectively. The details behind these forecast estimates as gleamed from the model can be found at the following URL = http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AVTLZ-updated-global-semiconductor-sales-for-2013-and-2014-per-the-cowan-lra-forecasting-model. These two results are obviously less bullish (for 2013) and more bullish (for 2014) than IDC's sales growth forecasts of 6.9 percent and 2.9 percent.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecastiung global semiconductor sales. 

rick merritt
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Re: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model's 2013 And 2014 Sales Growth Expectations
rick merritt   7/30/2013 4:14:35 PM
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Wow, significzantly less encouraging both in raw numbers and in a sense of confidence in projections given the divergence in the trend line over two years.

rick merritt
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Re: Let's hear it for growth
rick merritt   7/30/2013 4:16:14 PM
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@Wilbur I would not be quite so dire given folks doing well include Broadcom with a broader portfolio of cloud and mobile chips

Frank Eory
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Re: Let's hear it for growth
Frank Eory   7/30/2013 4:29:14 PM
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Strange, the article opens with "Global semiconductor sales are expected to increase by 6.9 percent in 2013" and closes with "Semiconductor demand will remain weak for 2013." So no matter what happens, IDC's forecast will be correct.

mcgrathdylan
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Re: Let's hear it for growth
mcgrathdylan   7/30/2013 6:19:13 PM
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@Frank- Opps. Your comment caught my attention and I realized that we left off a very important word. What she said was PC semiconductor demand would remain weak in 2013. Here is the full quote:

PC semiconductor demand will remain weak for 2013 as the market continues to be affected by the worldwide macroeconomic environment and the encroachment of tablets," said Nina Turner, Research Manager for semiconductors at IDC.


Sorry for the error.

Cowan LRA Model
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Dylan - Another Correction Required In Your Article
Cowan LRA Model   7/30/2013 7:26:35 PM
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Hi Dylan (again) - in your third paragraph there were two additional yr-over-yr sales contractions post 2001; namely in 2008 (-2.8 percent) and 2009 (-9.0 percent). However, it should be noted that 2001's sales contraction was quite large, namely down 32.0 percent.

Mike Cowan

Frank Eory
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Re: Let's hear it for growth
Frank Eory   7/30/2013 7:44:31 PM
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That makes a lot more sense. Glad to be of help :)

mcgrathdylan
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Re: Dylan - Another Correction Required In Your Article
mcgrathdylan   7/30/2013 9:00:47 PM
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Thanks Mike. I appreciate the correction.

elctrnx_lyf
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Re: Dylan - Another Correction Required In Your Article
elctrnx_lyf   7/31/2013 5:55:57 AM
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More and more products are becoming predominately electronic controlled which is increasing the share of the semiconductors market every year.

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