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Memory Market Turning on Q3 Caution

8/2/2013 11:25 AM EDT
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Tom Murphy
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Broader Problems?
Tom Murphy   8/2/2013 6:59:44 PM
Interesting.  Although they are two separate markets, I can help noting that IDC's outlook for chip sales show a 6.9% increase in 2013, but a slowdown to 2.7% in 2014.  And now there is a surplus in the DRAM supply chain? 

I'm not hunting for cloudy skies, but who thinks this is a warning of a much broader slowdown for tech?  Or is this just a coincidence?

Peter Clarke
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Re: Broader Problems?
Peter Clarke   8/5/2013 6:23:52 AM
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The softening prices are in the NAND flash domain. Not the DRAM market.

 

DRAM market is dependent on the PC market, known to be soft, but with a long-term replacement proposition. The NAND flash is dependent on the smartphone and tablet computer markets which appear to be softer than previously expected in Q3 and possibly in H2.

 

goafrit
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Re: Broader Problems?
goafrit   8/6/2013 3:04:56 PM
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>>  And now there is a surplus in the DRAM supply chain? 

There is always the surplus in DRAM as they usually follow a pattern. Stock, use and then re-order.  I do not think this shows any pattern of slow down. The economy will always drive this trajectory and I do not see a lot of slowdown. With the housing recovery, expect everything to stay positive.

goafrit
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Re: Broader Problems?
goafrit   8/6/2013 3:05:59 PM
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>> The softening prices are in the NAND flash domain. Not the DRAM market.

Very good differentiation and explanation. DRAM market will track the smartphone overall trajectory which still looks good now.

daleste
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Re: Broader Problems?
daleste   8/11/2013 3:20:38 PM
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This may just be a case of over supply.  Are the run rates for tablets and smart phones slowing?  Are there too many suppliers for flash?  It always seems to be the case that each of the suppliers plan to grow faster than the market and this causes an inventory build.

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