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Autonomous Cars: Breaking Down Market Forecasts

8/23/2013 08:30 AM EDT
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Loser99
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How many Automonous Cars in 2030? NONE
Loser99   8/23/2013 3:40:24 PM
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How well do they perform in heavy rain?  How about snow, How about when the roads are snow and ice covered and there are no landmarks?

Who is responsible when they kill their first person?

The manufacturer will constantly get sued of course. 

So, no automonous vehicles in any significant quantity on the roads.

 

 

krisi
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Re: Define Autonomy
krisi   8/23/2013 2:05:30 PM
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Let's walk before we run, getting something in place will be hard as these autonamous cars have to co-exist with "normal" ones for a while...I wonder at which point "normal" cars will be phased out, as analog TV today...nice article by the way Junko!

junko.yoshida
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Re: Define Autonomy
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 1:27:51 PM
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Hi, Kris. As you can see in the page 2 of this article,  the US Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has laid out a pretty comprehensive set of five levels of autonomy for autonomous cars. And I think this is very useful.

What you described might belong to the Level 2, according to NHTSA's categorization -- or somewhere in between level 2 and level 3. 

The issue is that where the sweet spot is going to be -- in terms of the market demand. Level 2 or level 3?

With the growing number of aging population, though, Level 3 (or Level 4) might be what might be really needed. 

 

krisi
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Re: Define Autonomy
krisi   8/23/2013 1:20:03 PM
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Agree Junko, we need a definition of autonomous to start any discussion on this topic...I think the pragmatic, shorter term definition would be a car that can drive without driver involvolvement on highway (maybe autonomous highway needs to be defined too)...any other ideas? Kris

junko.yoshida
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Define Autonomy
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 12:35:38 PM
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I think we are all getting ahead of ourselves by using the term "Automous Cars"  casually. When reading some of the market research analysts' reports, I was confused; then, only by talking to them, i realized that there are so many shades of autonomy in autonomous cars!

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