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Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says

8/27/2013 04:50 PM EDT
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DrQuine
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Experts Playing Chicken
DrQuine   8/29/2013 8:17:44 PM
The world is full of experts and speculation is cheap. We could fill a magazine with reports that "Moore's Law Dead by Year X, Expert Says." I've been reading such reports for years - and many of the stipulated dates have passed. It seems to me that we're playing a game of chicken. I guess Moore's Law will be dead by 2113, you guess 2063, someone else guesses 2022 (which is still a long way off) and wins the headline lottery for this week. It isn't news. The one positive outcome of this speculation is that it re-energizes the inventors to find one more creative way to eek out another doubling of performance, which benefits us all.

pseudoid
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Was Gordon E. Moore a Contrarian?
pseudoid   8/29/2013 9:59:01 PM
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Babson's Daniel Isenberg authors "Worthless, Impossible and Stupid: How Contrarian Entrepreneurs Create and Capture Extraordinary Value"
Since it was published by Harvard Business Review Publishing, it has risen to the top ranks on Amazon books and has been positively reviewed or featured in the Economist, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Forbes TV, Bloomberg, USA Today, Ventureburn, Entrepreneur.com and a number of radio programs.

rick merritt
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Re: Was Gordon E. Moore a Contrarian?
rick merritt   8/30/2013 9:27:23 AM
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@pseudoid: Hey if there's a contrarian out there with a new device manufacturing technology that promises exponential growth for the next 30 years, let that person stand up and speak! Until then, umbrella anyone?

rick merritt
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Re: Experts Playing Chicken
rick merritt   8/30/2013 9:30:15 AM
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@DRQuoine: Indeed as Intel's mark Bohr used to say "People have been predicting the end of Moore's Law in ten years for 20 years" The difference is now they are saying in 7-9 years, and I suspect that time frame will only shorten.

resistion
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More than Moore take over?
resistion   8/30/2013 9:42:13 AM
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Will More than Moore be enough to drive the industry when Moore's Law ends? If 3D heterogenous integration only offers linear not exponential growth, is that sufficient?

any1
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Re: More than Moore take over?
any1   8/30/2013 10:16:37 AM
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I believe that as fewer resources are directed at improving vanilla CMOS due to      the slowing of Moore's law, other related technologies will flourish.  It's beginning to happen already.  The author is correct when he says to follow the money.  The money has started to flow away from CMOS to MEMS, photonics, flexible electronics, and a plethora of other technologies that are poised for fast growth.  If you were a wealthy venture capitalist today where would you invest your money?

EVVJSK0
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Can we all just agree to call it ...
EVVJSK0   8/30/2013 12:31:30 PM
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Moore's observation and move on with our lives. The death of Moore's law has been forecast repeatedly for the last 20 or more years. So what if it eventually happens. We will have EXTREMELY dense silicon (or whatever you want to call it) by the time it happens (to match the EXTREMELY DENSE pundits who worry about it). Move along folks, nothing to see here ;-)

pseudoid
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Those "eureka" moments
pseudoid   8/30/2013 1:48:38 PM
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Few years back, there was an analysis of inventions/innovations/discoveries over the past centuries; dating back to the Mongolian era.  I wish I could find that article which had discussed the revelations about what it takes to enable the paradigm shifts that have occurred.  But one of the findings of that analysis was the shocking [to me] fact that they actually happen in spurts and in bunches during a small period of time. The analysis had further gone and found out that these cycles were a confluence of events that were not just limited to drastic social changes and congregation of equal minds being collocated in a small area of the world, just prior to such discoveries. Google searches will lead to many different hits on such happenstances.  I hope I have provided the fish hook for those interested in fishing further (or are hungry enough)!

It may be that we are in a period of time that is the lull before one of those storms are about to happen again. 

One can only hope...

EE,etc.
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Time to change the conductive matrial/technology?
EE,etc.   8/30/2013 3:25:45 PM
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hypotetically speaking, if the limitation of Moor's Law comes from silicon/electricity as the base material,technology, maybe it's time to look for other conductive materials/technology?

I am not a photoelectronic expert but how about short wave lenghts such as X-ray or Gamma rays? they can go to a fraction of nm, are we close to be able to conduct\process them?

that may give us another few decades:)

Charles.Desassure
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Moore's Law....
Charles.Desassure   8/30/2013 5:44:02 PM
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Thanks  for your article.  You know, this is a joke.  Why don't these so call experts spend time developing a new concept that can help society instead of focusing on what has been around for years.  This semester I am teaching a college level Business Comptuer Application course and next week the lecture topic will be, you guessed it, Moore's Law.  Moore's Law is not dead and Moore's  Law will not be dead as long as we continue to teach it within the educational system.   Moore's Law, Moore's Law and more Moore's Law.

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