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Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says

8/27/2013 04:50 PM EDT
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wilber_xbox
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Re: Moore's Law....
wilber_xbox   8/31/2013 10:43:35 AM
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Charles, what you said is a philosophical reality while in practice we all know the Moore's law as we know it today will hit the wall both economically and technologically. Though we might discover some way to satisfy our ego and keep improving the hardware performance.

selinz
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Re: Moore's Law....
selinz   8/31/2013 12:21:37 PM
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I think other articles have morphed Moore's law into more of a functional "double the transistors" rather than size. This allows 3d developments to fit into the concept and is much more usable. I'd think an "expert" would realize this. Obviously, you eventually get down to atomic sizes and it becomes difficult to get  there from here. But transistors per unit area is would account for 3d stuff.

Charles.Desassure
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Re: Moore's Law....
Charles.Desassure   8/31/2013 5:07:30 PM
Well, if philosophical reality is not true, I think we all professor's including those at Harvard, Yale, MIT and other colleges and universities around the world need to stop training future engineers. Will that happen in 20 years, no.  A law is dead when there is a major movement to change it.  There's no movement to change Moore's Law.  As a matter of fact, this is the first time I have heard of such statement.  Now, I am willing to add to or enhance Moore's  Law to meet current times, but to say Moore's Law is dead... please.  Sometime in life you have to face reality.   Moore's Law is current and we have no intention of changing it.  Moore's Law helped lay down the foundation.   You don't remove educational foundations out of the curriculum.

Patk0317
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Re: Moore's Law....
Patk0317   8/31/2013 7:49:37 PM
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Moore's Law is dead predictions began about 10 years ago. Sooner or later, somone will be correct. Personally I think there will be another technology to replace CMOS, but that doesn't mean Moore's Law will continue to be valid.

David Ashton
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Re: Moore's Law....
David Ashton   8/31/2013 7:53:31 PM
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@selinz....according to Wikipedia it was always about the number of transistors:

"Moore's law is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

which lets 3d in.    I'm sure there will always be articles about this in these (and other) columns, along with the debate.

Patk0317
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CEO
Re: Moore's Law....
Patk0317   8/31/2013 7:55:17 PM
I think one thing people are forgetting is that Moore's Law is not a law. It is not a law in the sense of the law of Gravitation for example. It is just a statement he made in an article many years ago that people latched on to. The laws of physics don't change, but Moore's Law (that is not a law in the scientific sense) can and will change.

David Ashton
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Re: Moore's Law....
David Ashton   9/1/2013 6:14:44 AM
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@Patk.....It's like Murphy's Law (or as my Dad used to call it, Sod's Law).  "Observation", as someone pointed out above, would be a better word, but "Moore's Law" has a much nicer ring to it.....

Denis.Giri
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Re: Moore's Law....
Denis.Giri   9/2/2013 3:28:17 AM
@Charles.Desassure

Philosophy applies to ethics and politics. Not to science and technology.

Let science and economics decide whether moore's law is dead, alive (or both).

 (When I have a leak in my bathroom, I don't call an electrician, I call a plumber.)

 

Right now, physics tells me it's impossible to create a transistor with a channel length < an atom's width, and economics tells me it's impossible to invest more than the world's PIB in fabs.

If we want to be able to produce the next generation's smartphone or computer and not having it take more space than we have available in any limited place (a flat, a warehouse, a country, even a planet: take your pick), then at some point, we know Moore's law is going to come to an end either because the device is going to be too big to be practical, or because we don't have the money to build it)

 

It's only a question of when.

GPBobby
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Re: Moore's Law....
GPBobby   9/3/2013 5:19:56 AM
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When, in science, did wishing (or talking or lecturing about something) make it so?

chipmonk0
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CEO
Re: Moore's Law....
chipmonk0   9/3/2013 10:44:51 AM
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this discussion / debate on Moores Law is getting ridiculous like medieval monks arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. i say ENUFF. The reporter ( @ Rick ) should make an honest effort to stop this wastage of time by posting the original slides of this Colwell fellow at DARPA. He is after all a Govt. employee and we pay his salary, he owes the semiconductor community the technical details behind his proclamations. let us see for ourselves how technically sound his presentation was.  

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