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Silicon Sees Schizophrenic Forecast

9/12/2013 07:25 PM EDT
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rick merritt
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Look inside
rick merritt   9/12/2013 8:51:47 PM
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Page 7 has an interesting chart showing how much bigger Intel and Hynix are than China's next biggest chip maker, SMIC--anjd lookout here comes Samsung.

Page 8 shows how much larger the fourth largest foundry (UMC) is than the fifth (SMIC) and it falls off rapidly after than with the sixth (Powerchip). Incresasingly our eggs are in a few baskets.

Thanks Bill for work well done!

EE,etc.
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Re: Look inside
EE,etc.   9/13/2013 2:11:56 PM
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Thanks Rick for sharing this fine report,

looking at page 7, It was also interesting to see China's semiconductor market is almost 10 times larger than its production level and the gap is widening too.

This might be a good thing for the semiconductor industry as a whole:

1. China has not dominated the semiconductor manufacturing (like it's doing in many other industries)

2. China itself is remaining a big consumer of electronics which is a very good news for the rest of the regions.

 

rick merritt
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Re: Look inside
rick merritt   9/13/2013 7:44:41 PM
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@EE: There's been some fear in Silicon Valley and the US in general of China growing to dominate electronics as Japan nearly did in the 1980s but given McClean's analysis here it looks like there's no danger of that happening in semi in the foreseeable future

krisi
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track record
krisi   9/13/2013 7:47:00 PM
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We all can speculate what the growth will be...but what is the track record of predictions like this?...does anyone really takes into account such analysis in running their businesses?

rick merritt
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Re: track record
rick merritt   9/14/2013 1:42:15 AM
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@ Krisi: Good point. McClean freely admits in 30 yers as an analyst he has hit a forecast on the hed about four times!

Sheetal.Pandey
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Re: track record
Sheetal.Pandey   9/14/2013 12:46:29 PM
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Yes silicon business will only grow. There is no looking back.

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