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Chips Break Sales Record in 2013

4% growth expected to continue this year
2/5/2014 06:43 PM EST
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daleste
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Great growth
daleste   2/5/2014 9:27:12 PM
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Very good news.  I didn't expect 2013 to be that good.  I hope the prediction for 2014 will be true.  It would be great for the industry to have two years of good growth.

rick merritt
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Re: Great growth
rick merritt   2/5/2014 10:10:46 PM
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I'm hoping for a hat trick--three good up years. But then I'm also pushing for more rain in California this winter ;-)

daleste
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Re: Great growth
daleste   2/6/2014 9:43:32 AM
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Yes, rain would be good here in Dallas also.  At least it is snowing today.

zewde yeraswork
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8 percent
zewde yeraswork   2/6/2014 12:18:33 PM
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Over 8 percent growth is a healthy forecast. We'll see if that holds up in the coming year with some of the disruption in the overall markets. So far though, so good.

Jessica Lipsky
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Re: 8 percent
Jessica Lipsky   2/6/2014 12:39:10 PM
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DB couldn't give additional details on why they forecast 8% growth, which is double that of the WSTS. WSTS/SIA (which use the same numbers) couldn't comment beyond "improved macro picture" - which makes me curious why there is such a difference in estimates. Is ~4% or 8% growth in 2014 more likely?

LarryM99
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Re: 8 percent
LarryM99   2/6/2014 1:25:37 PM
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I am thinking that there is good growth in the market but not in the areas where it has come before. Contrast this to the ugly things that have come out of Intel and other traditional leaders recently and you see a real transition away from dependence on PC growth and towards cell phones / tablets / smart thermostats and smoke alarms. That type of shift tends to introduce more uncertainty into predictions.

JimMcGregor
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Re: 8 percent
JimMcGregor   2/6/2014 2:19:45 PM
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I think 4% revenue growth is more reasonable and still optimistic. The market is changing with increased competition and more focus on mobile, embedded, and new IoT applications that are often smaller and less expensive. Units should still continue to grow, but we are likely on a plateau for revenue.

Cowan LRA Model
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Latest Cowan LRA Model's Forecast Numbers For 2014
Cowan LRA Model   2/6/2014 4:06:04 PM
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Hi Jessica - per the subject I have just run my LRA forecasting model using the latest end-of-year 2013 sales numbers recently posted (Feb 4th, 2014) by the SIA / WSTS. The resulting global semi sales and sales growth numbers "spit out" by the model are summarized below:

1Q14 = $74.91 billion w/ yr-o-yr sales growth of 6.3%;

2Q14 = $77.16 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 3.4%;

3Q14 = $83.11 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 3.2%;

and 4Q14 = $81.49 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 1.9%.

Therefore, the model's latest, just updated full year 2014 sales and sales growth expectations are $316.668 billion and 3.6%, respectively.

These latest Cowan LRA Model's predictions are in excellent agreement with the WSTS's Dec 2013 sales forecast estimate of $316.636 billion which, employing the final 2013 sales number of $305.584, corresponds to a 2014 yr-o-yr sales growth forecast of 3.6% also.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales  

Cowan LRA Model
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Re: 8 percent
Cowan LRA Model   2/6/2014 4:31:36 PM
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Hi Jessica and Jim - I am in the circa 4 percent camp for 2014's sales growth expectation. See my detailed comment BELOW. 

Mike Cowan (Independent semiconductor market watcher)

ddnrkik
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Re: Great growth
ddnrkik   2/6/2014 9:47:56 PM
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great info....

 

Kaos

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