It amazes me when I see all the articles on the end of Moore's law and none of them ever mention POET. There are going to be some tech writers scratching their heads when they realize the biggest revolution in semiconductor industry snuck by them while they were still touting hybrid silicon and graphene as the alternatives. POET is going to be the solution. Everything industry will try in the future will all lead them back to POET as the only viable solution.
I echo those who have mentioned POET Technologies. It is a little known company with a massive breaktrough in semiconductors. I urge anyone interested in this topic to research....2014 appears to be the "coming out" of this tech.
POET (Planar Opto Electronic) Technology already answers Moore's Law today.
They found a way to combine all electrical and optical components on one chip with an imbedded vertical emitting laser. Disruptive advances in performance, power savings, and decreased manufacturing cost are the tip of the iceberg.
If you have a PhD in EE or Physics you may understand this incredible presentation by Dr. Geoff Taylor of UCONN.
If you think this sounds is too good to be true, don't take my word for it, here is the link to Dr. Taylor talking at the Empire Club of Canada below. Just to put in perspective, only world leaders and industry innovators are invited to talk here. Bill Gates and Michael Dell were asked to speak here at the beginning of their careers.
Moore's Law or Prediction had a ten year life and expired in 1975. At that time it became and has remained Moore's wish or goal.
The goal was lower cost and higher performance including speed, and reduced power.
Moore's Goal has been served by inventions since 1975 unto this day.
It will almost certainly continue somewhere where there are creative people able to invent out of the box without losing their invention to the latest so called reform Patent Law awaiting approval in the Senate this week, The Troll Law, paid for and benefitting Apple, Google, Microsoft and IBM at our expense.
"Moore's Law" isn't a law at all. It's a prediction. Ohm's law is a real law in that it has been proven and so far is irrefutable. I would even say that laws enacted by governments aren't really laws because they are refutable by the courts and can be reversed. Those "laws" are more like rules.
There are some theoretical limits - at least within the bounds of physics as we know it today. Thermodynamics sets some limits on the rate of computation, while quantum mechanics sets some limitation on how fast information can be conveyed into and out of a computer.
Scientific American discussed this in 2011. Scientific American refers to the 1982 paper by Charles Bennett(no relation), which gives the thermodyamic basis of computation, but no prediction of the end of Moore's Law. A more recent paper on the thermodynamic aspects reportedly suggests Moore's law has 60-80 years left.
This 2000 paper by Seth Lloyd, considering the limits imposed by the speed of light, the quantum scale and the gravitational constant, is more optimistic, suggesting we had up to 250 years of Moore's law left.
When I was interviewed by a semiconductor company in December 1999, their stock was increasing rapidly. I was the only one to raise my hand and ask: "We're all engineers here. We know that physically, these exponential phenomena end up tapering at some point. When do you think this will end?" Their answer was never, and the stock market's answer was less than a month later (in fact, it took a nice dive).
I seriously think that the trend will simply decelerate as the physical complexities get in the way. People have been very smart, so I don't expect the current challenges to prevent improvements, but I also do think that it will slow the pace down.
January 2016 Cartoon Caption ContestBob's punishment for missing his deadline was to be tied to his chair tantalizingly close to a disconnected cable, with one hand superglued to his desk and another to his chin, while the pages from his wall calendar were slowly torn away.122 comments