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Micron Ramps Up Volume 3D NAND Production

Most of Micron's NAND flash on 3D NAND by Q2
2/12/2016 10:00 AM EST
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resistion
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Yesterday's report
resistion   2/14/2016 12:52:09 AM
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http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-45YXOQ/1514635595x0x875021/4BEAA02E-BBC2-402C-A51D-B3B2C6B8C3D4/Winter_Analyst_Day_2016.pdf


P. 41 looks bad, how can anyone here support a good outlook for Micron?

resistion
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Micron 3D NAND cross-section
resistion   2/13/2016 8:41:58 PM
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See the cross-sections here:


http://www.anandtech.com/show/10028/micron-3d-nand-status-update


Look toward the left edge of the memory array stack, see anything funny? They couldn't cut exactly through the pillar centers there, so the best hints are there. It looks like ~12 iterated patternings of ~4 layers at a time.

 

Micron 3D NAND cross-section

 

resistion
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Re: It is a win for Micron
resistion   2/13/2016 6:36:35 PM
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Intel's ramped technologies have never been cheap but at least for processors they've been justified by higher performance or lower power. For 3D NAND, only cost is key. Also, as Samsung already leads currently with actual SSD products, Intel and Micron now have to be fast (and apparently separate) followers on their own learning curve. Actually at ISSCC the Micron speaker already hinted it was not so cheap since "executive" support was not yet there:


http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1328874


While the others only deal with ONO deposition, a floating gate insertion adds complexity to the process.

Gondalf
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Re: It is a win for Micron
Gondalf   2/13/2016 10:57:48 AM
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I am doubtful Micron will go massively in production without solving first the economic issue you have pointed at..Intel too will go in volume quickly, and Intel goes in volume only when a production is cheaper than competitors. So apparently you are wrong this time....looking Intel china investiment on 3D NAND. After all Samsung VNAND was expensive too form the first day, and Samsung tried to compensate with volume, they never were happy about VNAND economical remuneration. So it is not all black or white like you are saying.

Ron Neale
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Re: It is a win for Micron managing the Physics?
Ron Neale   2/13/2016 5:39:41 AM
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There is a line on slide 24 of the Micron presentation that reads: "Manage/Hide the Memory Physics"  That will most likely go down in the history of PCM along with the Numonyx  secret data sheet of the past; perhaps some of the same cast of charcaters are involved. Hiding is easy, managing physics sounds an interesting concept. Perhaps its a management speak to justify the earlier 3DXpoint (tm) announcements. Who are they hiding the physics from and why, potential user, shareholders.  What part of the physics are they hiding, reliability, pitfalls.

 

resistion
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Re: It is a win for Micron
resistion   2/12/2016 8:06:19 PM
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PCM+OTS is many mW/bit. It may also need refresh due to drift. Though DRAM is probably <10uW/bit, I can't imagine Gb DRAM refresh maybe KBytes or less. In any case wasn't comparing XPoint vs DRAM. It can't replace DRAM because it lacks the endurance.

HangLai
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Re: It is a win for Micron
HangLai   2/12/2016 6:57:06 PM
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I hope you understand what you posted.  3D Xpoint NVMe is passive, that is no power is required.  Since it is byte addressable, that is only those bytes of data are needed to be read or write to, then they require power to do so,  thus, for a 128Gb (16GByte) chip, the power requirement should be substantially less than 3GByte DRAM like that in a cell phone  ( 1 byte vs 3GByte power), since DRAM must be constant refreshed at double the data rate ( clock frequency) on a continual basis, it is the major power hock behind the CPU.  FYI.

resistion
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Re: It is a win for Micron
resistion   2/12/2016 6:19:24 PM
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Highly doubt it can get enough traction against Samsung. XPoint is not that competitive because of power consumption. For same number of layers, Micron's 3D NAND is probably much more expensive than Samsung's VNAND because of extra floating gate steps.

HangLai
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It is a win for Micron
HangLai   2/12/2016 5:32:16 PM
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Micron in today's (2/12/2016) analyst day to announce that it is sampling the 3D-Xpoint product and volume producing 3D NAND, it is projecting that the 3D NAND bit will be more than 50% of all NAND products. Also 20nm DRAM is pressing well and is expected to produce 1X DRAM in 2H2016.  Thus, all in all, Micron will be the product/technology lead in 3D NAND and Xpoint, and soon will in 1X DRAM.  It is a win for Micron, for a change.

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