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5G Report Gauges Trillion-Dollar Impacts

1/17/2017 03:00 AM EST
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alex_m1
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Re: 5G is coming but there's no evidence behind this report
alex_m1   2/26/2017 4:01:13 AM
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Dave:

1. Isn't massive MIMO limited by antenna size, even in the base-station, hence requiring mmWave ? 

Not to speak about limitations in the mobile handset. 

 

2. mmWave requires line-of-sight, which doesn't seem to fit mobile. 

 

So how will the cost-per-bit for mobile be lower than 4G ? and by how much, is your guess ?

rick merritt
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Re: What will be 5G impact on Wired Broadband (i.e., fiber)
rick merritt   1/20/2017 1:19:04 PM
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@sranje I am told 5G to the home has become a hot topic of discussion with carriers. Clearly with peak rates of 10Gbits possible at least in some areas Comcast and others may feel some heat.

sranje
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What will be 5G impact on Wired Broadband (i.e., fiber)
sranje   1/18/2017 6:57:38 PM
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Interesting article and comments

Any views on how 5G might impact Wired Broadband which is increasingly moving to fiber?

Many thanks in advance

daveburstein
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5G is coming but there's no evidence behind this report
daveburstein   1/17/2017 11:41:22 PM
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Rick

The cost per bit of 5G Massive MIMO and probably 5G mmWave will be attractive, so I'm confident we'll be seeing it.  

5G should pay for itself by lowering the cost of networks. (Sooner on Massive MIMO. probably later on mmWave. We'll know more when we get data from the field.)

But it's clear we haven't found many applications that don't work just fine on Gig LTE and Wi-Fi emerging from standards. I've researched the requirements of AR, VR, telemedicine, and IoT. Experts in each field tell me 5G isn't needed for what they are doing.  Even most of the connected car stuff doesn't need lower latency than LTE can deliver

Claiming benefits beyond network costs require finding things only 5G can do. Does that add up to trillions? 

Qualcomm and IHS certainly haven't justified their estimates. Nearly all they claim can be done on Gig LTE and doesn't need "5G." They don't even attempt to calculate how much of the value of things like telemedicine can be attributed to 5G. 

The report is hollow and their numbers unproven at best.

Dave Burstein

 

 

 

alex_m1
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Re: What is quallcom expected to say ?
alex_m1   1/17/2017 6:46:34 PM
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Rick,

The question is whether enough urban users are willing to pay for more bandwidth. but mobile arpu is down:https://www.telegeography.com/press/press-releases/2007/03/01/global-wireless-arpus/ 

The other alternative is that the cost per bit in 5G is significantly lower than 4g(and lte advanced) , enough to justify spending alot on laying infra and new chipsets. But the only major improvement i see in 5G(with regards to spectral efficiency) is various MIMO arrangements , but those can work well in LTE advanced. And let's not forget WIFI improvements.

rick merritt
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Re: What is quallcom expected to say ?
rick merritt   1/17/2017 5:21:09 PM
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Thanks for sharing an opposing view.

Ironically I just got done talking with William Webb who makes the point in IoT networks we are flooded with too many alternatives.

I'm not sure you can convince me lots of urban users won't scoop up those multi-Gbit connections if they can deliver them. But I'm taking a wait-and-see stance on the low latency stuff.

 

alex_m1
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What is quallcom expected to say ?
alex_m1   1/17/2017 12:40:06 PM
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Leaving aside the strong cheering from the many companies who has financial stake in 5G , here are 2 highly detailed and very negative reviews of the fate of 5G :

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/whats-wrong-5g-vision-william-webb

http://rethink-wireless.com/2016/07/19/the-reasons-why-5g-can-never-happen/

 

In short(and missing a lot of important details): 4G can be improved enough , together with wifi, IOT doesn't need 5G, consumers most likely aren't willing to pay more for connectivity, and the new use cases(low latency UAV's and cars, VR/AR) haven't really materialized yet and are very up in the air,  and under those conditions 5G doesn't offer a real improvement to the economics of their business. 

 

 

 

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