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Tight Memory Supply Drives Micron's Record Sales

6/30/2017 02:51 PM EDT
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HangLai
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Re: MU is in good shape
HangLai   7/5/2017 10:01:40 AM
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Nanya is not dumping MU stock.  It sold 20% of MU stock to finance its 20 nm DRAM conversion.  Nanya was lucky to have invested in MU stock in late 2016, it has almost double their original investment value in six month.  If they did not, they would have to finance the technology capex. Nanya has already said it will do $1B capex in 2017, expect them to sell more MU stocks later.  Now, MU will get benefit too, since Nanya will pay for MU's license in either 20nm or 1x DRAM   IP.

ubm112211
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Re: MU is in good shape
ubm112211   7/4/2017 8:13:19 PM
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btw, MU 's buddy Nanya is dumping it's shares like crazy. better consult with em 1st.

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Nanya has sold a total of about 12 million Micron shares for US$30-32 each from June 16 to June 29, and expects to recognize a total gain of nearly US$167 million from the sale, according to company filings with the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE).

Nanya disclosed on June 29 it sold 400,000 Micron shares for about US$32.16 each or a total of US$12.862 million. Nanya expects to recognize a gain of approximately US$5.94 million from the sale. In a filing on June 27, Nanya said it sold 1,002,068 Micron shares for about US$32.61 each or a total of US$32.677 million. Nanya expects to recognize a gain of approximately US$15.33 million from the sale.

ubm112211
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Re: MU is in good shape
ubm112211   7/3/2017 10:18:55 PM
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maybe investor s not recovered from last bust cycle yet. let cycle MU fall from ~$35 - $12range, quite a few investors bankrupted on it.

HangLai
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MU is in good shape
HangLai   7/3/2017 9:54:34 AM
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MU's finance is also significantly better than most people believe,  in the calendar year of 2017: from January to December of 2017),  MU will make $7 – $7.5B non-GAAP profit ( February and May quarter 2017, MU has already made ~$3B and August and November quarters, MU is expected to make another $4.5B profit); which is almost 3X of Intel's per share earnings, yet, MU's stock is trading below Intel's ($35/share).  Clearly, MU is still not under radar screen by the investors.

realjjj
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Re: MU is in good shape!
realjjj   7/2/2017 9:27:19 AM
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If they can do that. Samsung's 48L is at about 70% array efficiency so CuA is already of big help.

If they do use string stacking, the cost saving is still not obvious. I suppose it's throughput per $ that must see the gains and since i got no good ideas here, i assume it's many little things that add up.

resistion
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Re: MU is in good shape!
resistion   7/2/2017 8:38:33 AM
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Probably close to 100% efficiency? The thumbnail looks that way and height/area ratio looks just right.

realjjj
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Re: MU is in good shape!
realjjj   7/2/2017 8:25:46 AM
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The 64-layer die is much smaller so the question is what's the array efficiency. Have they improved CuA further, can they achieve 85% efficiency or better with such a small die? They should also have a 512Gb die but can't find any details on that. The 768Gb die shown at ISSCC was 179mm2 so 3x the size and capacity of this commercial die. That makes you wonder, maybe there are substantial differences between the two but hmm...

Micron does get points for originality with 3D NAND. Floating gate , CMOS under array, string stacking.They seem to have a well defined long term plan so maybe we see more interesting solutions. I guess string stacking is an assumption for now, it's not confirmed 100% yet, is it?

As for cost savings, i don't see a one thing that provides the bulk of the gains, maybe it's many small things, maybe we haven't figured it out yet.  The 256Gb is in shipping products so we'll see more details soon https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820167429

resistion
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Re: MU is in good shape!
resistion   7/2/2017 3:46:53 AM
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It's interesting that bit density, per layer, is a little lower. Reverse shrink? That could lower cost of the wafer. Can it really offset added layer costs?

realjjj
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Re: MU is in good shape!
realjjj   7/1/2017 3:01:32 PM
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There are products in retail with their 64 layer so we should see soon. I am not sure it is litho shrink though. They double the layers ,they almost double the density. In a bit of a rush now, will have to check the figures later.

Thinner layers seem unavoidable - to scale faster than the aspect ratio.

Quick edit:

32L- 168.2mm2, 384Gb, 2.28Gb/mm2, 4 planes with 32 tiles, each tile at 4.12 mm2,array efficiency about 85%

64L- 256Gb, 59mm2, 4.34Gb/mm2. It does appear that they would need extremely high array efficiency without a shrink. Wish we had a better picture of the die.



resistion
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Re: MU is in good shape!
resistion   7/1/2017 1:44:51 PM
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Most likely Intel/Micron are using mainly litho shrink to get the 30%, TechInsights indicated BL pitch of 80 nm and channel pitch even larger.

I think all of the 3D NAND makers might be thinning layers to etch through more layers in one string, that's a guess.

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