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IoT Growth Slower Than Expected

Units won’t crack billion/year until 2019
7/25/2017 07:01 PM EDT
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rick merritt
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Re: hmm - still strong Consumer instead Enterprise IoT focus
rick merritt   7/27/2017 7:15:19 PM
@sranje Good catch. It should have been "client" not "consumer" segment.

Re smart cities: After writing a couple stories talking to metro CTO types in San Jose, LA and vendors this looks like a hard sell. Tech looking for a problem. And every sell is a new city government education and procurement process. Tear my hair out!

rick merritt
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Re: Robustness and some autonomy
rick merritt   7/27/2017 7:09:41 PM
Les, You should write a column on your home automation experiences. Might be good therapy ;-)

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hmm - still strong Consumer instead Enterprise IoT focus
sranje   7/26/2017 5:51:01 PM
There must be a typo here:

Smart buildings represent the second largest consumer IoT market...

Smart buildings are not Consumer at all – except for residential homes - correct?  ;-))

In meantime Industrial IC vendors are happily selling their ICs into Industrial and Smart-City IoT segments

  -- For example, 50%+ of TI revenue of $10B Analog, including Power, ICs goes through distributors to TI's 80K+ customers -- much of that for IoT applications. So much in fact that leading distributors have formed IoT BUs to assist customers with IoT solutions

The two main IoT segments - Industrial and Smart City appear to be still much underestimated - now and for the next 3-5 years....

rick merritt
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Last year's forecast
rick merritt   7/26/2017 2:30:15 PM
Here's some perspective from Mike Demler of Linley Group via email, responding to a question from me about last year's forecast:

"Here is what I presented last year:

Slow maturation in consumer and wearables markets pushes peak growth from 2017 to 2018-19
  • The installed base of IoT devices will grow to 6 billion units in 2020
  • Excludes PCs, smartphones, smart-TVs, etc.
  • Rising to 12 billion devices in 2023
  • Represents 16 IoT devices/middle-class home [Now projecting 13...rbm]
  • Consumer shipments pass industrial in 2018

So we now project installed base at 10.4B in 2023, consumer IoT > industrial in 2019."

Jeanne Pindar
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Re: Robustness and some autonomy
Jeanne Pindar   7/26/2017 1:47:42 PM
One of the things I like about my Phillips Hue lights is that they work without an internet connection. 

I haven't had many issues - once in a while a new app will have trouble finding the bridge, but if the app allows me to enter it's IP address manually it'll work.  I have seen apps give me an error message but work fine. I'm guessing that's just because they didn't parse a response from the hub correctly.

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IoT market crystal balling
jmrowca   7/26/2017 10:42:22 AM
I wonder, given all the "network" security concerns out there, that the prognosticators of IoT market segment growth are sometimes foolish idIoTs - pun intended.

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Robustness and some autonomy
Les_Slater   7/26/2017 9:02:23 AM
I am in the process of embarking on my third try in setting up IoT lighting control for my condo. Gave up on the first two.

"Connecting things to Wi-Fi is so difficult and unreliable that it's been holding things back," Yes, but not just the connection but the robustness of the connections, not just WI-FI but all local connections and overal functioning. Getting friendly advice on an app to unplug the hub or bridge for a minute, and then plug it back in, to solve a hang, especially when thousands of miles away, is not too helpful. Even if the consumer is in the building, it is totally unacceptable.

Also, I would be very wary of any tendency to require connecting all nodes to the cloud via cellular, or similar technology. Most of the automation would do well to have some local control.

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