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Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says

8/27/2013 04:50 PM EDT
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double-o-nothing
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How many times heard this?
double-o-nothing   8/28/2013 10:15:34 AM
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It's getting old.

Caleb Kraft
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economic
Caleb Kraft   8/28/2013 10:38:20 AM
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It is interesting that he points out that it will be an economic stop, not a technological one. At some point you would think that the cost would outweigh the benefit. I guess we'll see.

chipmonk0
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Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
chipmonk0   8/28/2013 11:30:45 AM
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He is a mere 85 !

But just for kicks someone should put together a list of various arguments over the years ( some even invoking Physics ) why Moore's Law is about to keel over.

rick merritt
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
rick merritt   8/28/2013 1:22:47 PM
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Get your heads out of the sand, folks. Advances will continue but exponential advances are coming to an end.

Don't believe me. Don't even believe this ex Intel Pentium manager and DARPA project manager. Don't even believe Henry Samueli:
2013-05-23  Broadcom: Time to prepare for the end of Moore's Law
Just believe whatever feels good for you.


wilber_xbox
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
wilber_xbox   8/28/2013 1:59:02 PM
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Its kind of good for both Physics and innovation. Moore's law has stalled a lot of promising technologies that should have received funding but ecomonics stopped all such technologies. Hopefully some other material than silicon will see the light.

chipmonk0
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
chipmonk0   8/28/2013 2:46:19 PM
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You could say that people have already pulled their head out of "sand" ( i,e. silicon ) and looking at other materials with higher electron mobility and lower leakage. Did the ex Intel guy at ARPA ( whose name I did n't recognize ) get into any of those novel materials ? If and when they move from Lab to Fab, they might even upset the current pecking order among SemiCos ( both IDM and Foundries ). 

Good Physics have a way of disrupting extrapolations - both for and against Moore's Law.

rick merritt
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
rick merritt   8/28/2013 5:03:14 PM
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I was surprised he didn't metnion mateirals, graphene and etc. But I bet he has an opinion on it.

I hope to interview him sometime this fall. He's off on vacation now.

Meanwhile, anyone know if graphene, buckyballs or some other magic material is going to save or bacon when EUV sputters at the finish line?

resistion
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Hints from NAND
resistion   8/28/2013 7:45:57 PM
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I suppose a big hint comes from NAND Flash transistor scaling slowing noticeably after 20 nm.

docdivakar
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Then There Were Three?
docdivakar   8/28/2013 10:24:23 PM
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The way it is going now as regards to the $$ required to build the next generation fab, it may very well take $10B+ to build a 5nm fab, affordable to only a handful of them, perhaps three? Any guesses? TSMC...

MP Divakar

rick merritt
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Re: Then There Were Three?
rick merritt   8/29/2013 1:45:24 AM
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Three is probably right. One for Intel, TSMC ad some fool who loses his shirt.

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