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David Ashton
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How many times have we heard this?
David Ashton   8/29/2013 4:07:49 AM
I suspect (Arthur C) Clarke's Laws apply here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws

There seems still some way to go in terms of nm transistor size, and already we are expanding into 3 dimensions.  Have the esperts taken this into account?  My feeling is the 3D expansion will carry us a fair bit further.  Could someone who knows more than I do (which is not much) comment?

 

Garcia-Lasheras
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
Garcia-Lasheras   8/29/2013 7:02:52 AM
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Moore's law was born with CMOS and will die with CMOS too. This is all about the physical limit of a technology!!

Next gen materials, as well as next gen processing architectures, are the only hope for the future. I'm eager for tomorrow discussion on EETimes Week in Review chat

Intel's CPU clock speed

Intel's CPU clock speed



pmoyle111
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Re: Then There Were Three?
pmoyle111   8/29/2013 9:52:52 AM
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sadly that loser may be AMD/Global Foundries

chipmonk0
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
chipmonk0   8/29/2013 11:14:42 AM
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@ Rick :

Was n't it you yourself who reported a couple of weeks back on Samsung's 3D NAND -- stacked one cell on top of another on a single wafer ? 

With time, such 3D technology will spread into processors and memory - processor combos as well. Though the cost per transistor may increase in such stacked devices due to cost of addition of isolation & vertical interconnects etc., the cost per system & power consumption would go down radically due to electrical reasons. How is that for not having to wait for adequate throughput from EUV but still stay on the growth path ?

Balanced, comprehensive and well-reasoned coverage is what we will keep depending on you for. 

chipmonk0
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
chipmonk0   8/29/2013 11:21:41 AM
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@ Garcia - Lasheras : selective presentation of data ( graph showing saturation of clock rate ) only damages one's own credibility. As it should have been clear to you this is a Technical Forum and participants are well aware of clock - rate vs multi - processor arguments as options to deliver a certain GFlops. That train has long left the station.

DMcCunney
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Re: economic
DMcCunney   8/29/2013 12:12:59 PM
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See the discussions elsewhere on EETimes about the soaring costs of fabs, and the steadily advancing costs of keeping fabs already built up to date with current technology.

We're at the point where very few players can afford to build a fab to begin with, let alone keep current on process technologies.

At some point, you run into a wall where it might be technically possible but you can't afford to do it.  We are arguably reaching that point.

Garcia-Lasheras
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
Garcia-Lasheras   8/29/2013 12:19:36 PM
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@chipmonk0: "selective presentation of data ( graph showing saturation of clock rate ) only damages one's own credibility".

Thak you very much for your value judgement...  

"As it should have been clear to you this is a Technical Forum and participants are well aware of clock - rate vs multi - processor arguments as options to deliver a certain GFlops"

I'm pretty aware of this, but not everybody share the same skills or knowledge. The graph is included in a blog that I wrote for the All Programmable Planet community, in which I tried to give a very simple physical explanation about why clock rates doesn't fit with Moore's law beyond a process limit despite the fact that transistor number does. If you are really interested, here you have the full history.

The "selective presentation of data" I expose was obtained & kindly shared by Dr. Colin Gillespie, from the Univerity of Newcastle -- UK. In his original blog, he explains how he collected and analyzed the raw data -- you can check it in deeper way if you want to.

"That train has long left the station"

I started working in the clock related problems in CMOS processes in year 2001.

From your comments, I deduce you are pretty interested in the Moore's Law demise or survival topic.  I plan to be in the related EETimes week in review chat tomorrow... maybe shall I see you there?

wilber_xbox
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Re: Then There Were Three?
wilber_xbox   8/29/2013 2:17:01 PM
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it make more sense then to have collobration efforts to build fabs. Not many companies can afford to spend such money and not many technology nodes are out there to reach so why go solo...

Frank Eory
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CEO
Re: economic
Frank Eory   8/29/2013 2:23:18 PM
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Indeed the economic stop seems to be a far more predicatable one than the technological stop. Not only will very few players be able to afford to build a fab or even tape out an IC in 7 nm or 5 nm or whatever the last CMOS node is, but it is also likely that very few ICs will command the enormous volumes required to justify the expense of developing them and getting them released to production.

pseudoid
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Why are we so ready to continually assisinate Moore's Law?
pseudoid   8/29/2013 8:06:51 PM
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@rick merritt >> Regarding graphene (along with many other nano-particles) and  toxicity at the human cell-level has been raised in the past few months (please google it and you may find the topic interesting).  I also have issues with the "fact" that the only byproduct of hydrogen fuel cells is supposed to be water.  Donald Rumsfeld 'poetry' regarding the Knowns and the Unknowns may hold true here (please google it and you may find that interesting also).  Cheers

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