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First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst

R&D investment estimates vary
7/10/2012 04:59 AM EDT
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Peter Clarke
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
Peter Clarke   7/10/2012 5:22:06 PM
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It's all up in the air BUT what is different is that this is a game for far fewer players than it was at 300-mm and that concentrates the expense in relatively few pockets. Could that make it a transition too far?

docdivakar
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
docdivakar   7/10/2012 7:06:48 PM
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@Dylan: the "...the transition to 450-mm wafers is inevitable..." is only true to some, not all. I believe the number will be a small one. Given this, how are the 10 wafer fab equipment suppliers fund that 80 percent of the R&D required to support the transition? Interesting forecast on the fab demography in 2017... MP Divakar

mcgrathdylan
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
mcgrathdylan   7/10/2012 7:39:56 PM
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Thanks MP. I agree with you, and I suspect that Bob Johnson of Gartner would agree also. There will be only a few companies that move to 450. As far as how they will fund it, I suspect that we saw an example of that yesterday, when Intel announced it would take a stake in ASML and provide additional funding for 450-mm and EUV development. This is the way I think it has to be, because the tool vendors themselves are not going to be able to afford all of the R&D on their own.

m00nshine
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
m00nshine   7/11/2012 1:39:00 AM
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Not sure that ASML should set the standard for all tool vendors, though I'm sure any vendor will now like to ask for upfront $$ to fund R+D. Regarding 450mm photo development, it seems we're really talking EUV. I believe there are some toolsets like implant that face significant challenges to upsize from 300mm to 450mm, but I would think that this asml example will be the exception, not the rule.

mcgrathdylan
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
mcgrathdylan   7/11/2012 6:42:25 AM
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I am with you. I think every tool maker would like to get money up front for 450-mm development. But I am not sure that that many are negotiating from ASML's position of strength in lithography. Sadly, in more competitive equipment markets, bearing the cost of 450-mm development may be table stakes.

Peter Clarke
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
Peter Clarke   7/11/2012 2:04:13 PM
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What is also interestng is what happens to 300-mm wafer fabs when the leading-edge digital logic and memory ICs are made in a very few 450-mm megafabs. History teaches that the 300-mm fabs will become the domain of More-than-Moore, trailing-edge digital, 57 varieties of analog, mixed-signal, image sensors, MEMS and so on. And most 200-mm wafer factories will probably become economically unviable if they are trying to compete with larger 300-mm wafer fabs. The result will be a complete changing of the order.

resistion
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
resistion   7/12/2012 1:27:22 AM
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Fewer 450 mm fabs means contingency plans are more important, like disaster planning, etc.

lcovey
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
lcovey   7/11/2012 8:51:21 PM
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And then, talking with the Cymer folks, their EUV teech will be rolling out before 450mm is ready, even on the most optimistic predictions, which could increase yields on 300mm enough to make 450mm unnecessary in the short term.

m00nshine
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
m00nshine   7/12/2012 12:07:33 PM
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Not sure I follow how EUV could increase yield

resistion
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
resistion   7/14/2012 2:50:16 AM
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So far, at least by appearance only, tsmc and Intel prefer 450 mm very soon, Samsung may wait. You can't have too many changes at 14 nm.

resistion
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
resistion   7/14/2012 8:42:12 AM
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http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/08/06/2012/53854/samsung-to-spend-1.9bn-on-20nm-and-14nm-fab-equipment.htm

KB3001
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re: First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst
KB3001   7/15/2012 12:03:26 PM
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Fascinating! I guess that's why executives are paid a lot of money, the decisions they have to make can make or break a business. PS. With all the best prior research and analysis, there is always an element of luck in it.

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