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jvn01
'Ah, Statistics. I love the one that says "30% of accidents are caused by drunk ...
HereBeDragons
Ah, Statistics. I love the one that says "30% of accidents are caused by drunk ...
Statistics, statistics and damned lies
Brian Bailey
7/31/2012 2:34 PM EDT
Now before I start, please don’t get me wrong. There is a real issue here and I am not in any way attempting to undermine the seriousness of this issue, but sometimes I read a statistic that is thrown into an article and I have to say – now wait a minute. That is just totally illogical or does not follow in the context of this article. That happened when I read an article about the problems associated with product piracy. The complete article can be found here.
It says:
Counterfeiting is now one of the fastest growing and profitable industries in the world. With an average of 5 - 7% of the world trade market, it is a $600 billion per year industry. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports the total number of counterfeit goods increased dramatically in FY 2011 by 24% compared to the prior year, and has increased 325% over the past decade.
In the next paragraph it says:
The impact and cost across industries is quite staggering. The Federal Trade Commission reported that counterfeit automotive parts total approximately $12 billion and also result in 200,000 fewer manufacturing jobs.
Now, I have a problem with this statement. I presume they are saying that that it would take 200,000 manufacturing jobs to produce those $12 billion in parts. There is an assumption here that if those parts were not being pirated, that the same number of parts would actually sell at more elevated prices. There is also the assumption that all of those jobs would perhaps be in this country, which is not a reasonable assumption given that many automobile parts are manufactured in other countries – probably the same ones that are making the cheaper versions.
So, yes, I am concerned about the safety that is associated with parts that are not controlled by the original manufacturer, especially for things such as pharmaceuticals, but please don’t try and tell me that this is why we do not have manufacturing jobs in this country as implied. There is no supporting evidence for that. Keep the facts as facts, opinions clearly stated as such and supposition out of it.
Brian Bailey – keeping you covered
If you found this article to be of interest, visit EDA Designline where you will find the latest and greatest design, technology, product, and news articles with regard to all aspects of Electronic Design Automation (EDA).
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It says:
Counterfeiting is now one of the fastest growing and profitable industries in the world. With an average of 5 - 7% of the world trade market, it is a $600 billion per year industry. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports the total number of counterfeit goods increased dramatically in FY 2011 by 24% compared to the prior year, and has increased 325% over the past decade.
In the next paragraph it says:
The impact and cost across industries is quite staggering. The Federal Trade Commission reported that counterfeit automotive parts total approximately $12 billion and also result in 200,000 fewer manufacturing jobs.
Now, I have a problem with this statement. I presume they are saying that that it would take 200,000 manufacturing jobs to produce those $12 billion in parts. There is an assumption here that if those parts were not being pirated, that the same number of parts would actually sell at more elevated prices. There is also the assumption that all of those jobs would perhaps be in this country, which is not a reasonable assumption given that many automobile parts are manufactured in other countries – probably the same ones that are making the cheaper versions.
So, yes, I am concerned about the safety that is associated with parts that are not controlled by the original manufacturer, especially for things such as pharmaceuticals, but please don’t try and tell me that this is why we do not have manufacturing jobs in this country as implied. There is no supporting evidence for that. Keep the facts as facts, opinions clearly stated as such and supposition out of it.
Brian Bailey – keeping you covered
If you found this article to be of interest, visit EDA Designline where you will find the latest and greatest design, technology, product, and news articles with regard to all aspects of Electronic Design Automation (EDA).
Also, you can obtain a highlights update delivered directly to your inbox by signing up for the EDA Designline weekly newsletter – just Click Here to request this newsletter using the Manage Newsletters tab (if you aren't already a member you'll be asked to register, but it's free and painless so don't let that stop you).
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http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/poconoarmchairreview
7/31/2012 3:42 PM EDT
I found out a long time ago that statistics are often twisted any way the presenter wants, the same as with secular ethics, political promises, and employment contracts. You have to keep your eyes open, and maybe have a lawyer in the family, to fight back.
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EREBUS
7/31/2012 5:20 PM EDT
Trust no one and verify all data. Truth is more subjective than it used to be. SPIN is the name of the game and everyone uses statistics to justify their miss-information.
Pity really, we used to be able to trust journalist, but it seems they have developed a tremendous credibility issue.
Josef Goebbels would be proud of the way our news media have become propaganda vehicles for all parties.
I stopped watching network news years ago. Too depressing.
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BrianBailey
7/31/2012 7:54 PM EDT
Well, I will try and keep people honest and call them on it when I see blatant misuse of information.
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Ogemaniac
8/1/2012 3:54 AM EDT
Even if you assume the $12 billion figure, the 200,000 job figure is ridiculous. A modern manufacturing facility translates into something more like a million dollars in sales per worker, not $60,000 ($12b/200k).
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LorenSutherland
8/1/2012 3:23 PM EDT
Brian,
Suggest you look at www.americanminifoundry.com if you want an update on "counterfeit parts" , albeit more focused on US security
Peace, Loren
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DCH
8/1/2012 5:42 PM EDT
Get the quote right.
Lyndon Johnson said:
"There are three kinds of lies. Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
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BrianBailey
8/1/2012 6:32 PM EDT
Mea Culpa
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diamondw
8/2/2012 8:33 AM EDT
The quote was popularized by Mark Twain in 1906 although he attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli (who didn't seem to have ever used it).
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SouthernKiwi
8/2/2012 10:10 AM EDT
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein
Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. ~W.I.E. Gates
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BrianBailey
8/2/2012 1:10 PM EDT
I love your first quote. I must find a way to use that in the future. Thanks.
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Teako
8/2/2012 12:30 PM EDT
"Statistics Don’t Lie, Statisticians Do"
It is not true that you can say just anything with statistics. If two people come up with different conclusions using the same
data, then at least one person is wrong.
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rfindley
8/2/2012 1:03 PM EDT
'Statistics' is the art of turning meaningful information into a creatively useful misrepresentation of reality.
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djohns
8/2/2012 2:04 PM EDT
"If you torture numbers long enough you can get them to say anything."
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Larry M
8/3/2012 9:51 AM EDT
Cosider the sources...
"The Federal Trade Commission reported that counterfeit automotive parts total approximately $12 billion and also result in 200,000 fewer manufacturing jobs."
These "counterfeit auto parts" constitute copies of bumpers, grilles, and fenders made offshore as an alternative to the vastly overpriced "crash parts" used as a cash cow by poorly-run, tsnking US auto companies.
These gasping-for-last-breath US auto companies are now taking a stab at protecting their turf by applying for design patents on every element of their cars--shape of the bumpers, fenders, headlight rims, and windshields--to compel owners to buy only from them.
Of course they would issue a report like the one cited above.
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HereBeDragons
8/5/2012 7:33 PM EDT
Ah, Statistics. I love the one that says "30% of accidents are caused by drunk drivers". That means 60% are caused by sober drivers, ergo, it is safer to drive drunk than sober. Where's the beer?
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jvn01
8/8/2012 3:53 AM EDT
'Ah, Statistics. I love the one that says "30% of accidents are caused by drunk drivers". That means 60% are caused by sober drivers, ergo, it is safer to drive drunk than sober. Where's the beer?
'
Hmmm, interesting point, but I'm most concerned about the remaining 10% of accidents - who is causing them..?
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