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Nando Basile

11/4/2012 6:37 AM EST

Since tremors are not clear indication of incumbent earthquake, we may wonder in ...

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LJL1

11/2/2012 8:27 AM EDT

I visited the area only a few weeks ago. Part of the issue is that the ...

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What were they thinking: Scientists responsible for their work

Brian Bailey

10/26/2012 12:07 PM EDT

It is an interesting question. When a bridge fails – who is responsible? The designer, the people who constructed it, shoddy materials that are out of spec? It is often a subject that the public demands answers to. How about that failed chip? Was it the designer’s fault who let a bug creep into the design, or perhaps it is the fabrication process that allowed something to get out of spec, the EDA vendor whose tool did not flag an error, or even the verification engineer who failed to find the bug? Responsibility is rarely placed in our industry because there is almost an acceptance that mistakes will happen. We try to learn from them and improve the processes such that similar errors do not happen in the future. Those who take the time to learn are likely to make the most improvements and become more competitive as a result, unless the process put in place add undue time and cost to the process.

Occasionally, when a large and embarrassing problem happens in a company, a fall guy is identified and he is fired. Many times that person is not the person really responsible, but it seems to make the outside world feel better when the guilty party has been identified and punished.

Earlier this week I read a disturbing article from Italy. Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila. That’s right – they failed to predict the earthquake and as a result will spent time in prison on a charge of manslaughter. While scientists around the world know it is impossible to predict earthquakes, the Italian authorities argued that they provided an inadequate characterization of the risks; of being misleadingly reassuring about the dangers that faced their city.

Would you now want to be a scientist in Italy? What kind of precedence does this set? I can just imagine in the U.S. that every weather forecast would now come with a legal disclaimer, just in case someone got sunburned and later died of skin cancer, or a farmer lost his crop because they failed to characterize the risks of a frost.

I would love to hear your views on this.


Brian Bailey – keeping you covered

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EREBUS

10/26/2012 3:38 PM EDT

The punishment is dependent upon what they did or did not due when they were employed.
If they allowed building codes to be relaxed under the excuse that earthquakes are rare, then they should be punished.
If they alerted officials as to potential problems and the politicians did nothing, then only the politicians should be punished.
If they proved that both groups calluded to create the problems or to slow or stop needed modifications to existing structures, then both should be punished.
Until you know the details, you really cannot say what should happen next.
Just my opinion,

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BrianBailey

10/26/2012 10:11 PM EDT

Most of these were scientists whose job was to predict earthquakes. They had stated that they thought the risk of a sizable earthquake in the region was unlikely based on the available seismic data. I think completely comparable events would be a weather forecaster who predicts that a hurricane will not affect a region resulting in no evacuation. The only difference is that with one the timing of the event is known, whereas with an earthquake there is almost no early warning system.

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kjdsfkjdshfkdshfvc

10/27/2012 9:29 AM EDT

I blame Apple (shrug)

http://bit.ly/IC4m9t

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Wnderer

10/27/2012 1:57 PM EDT

I recall being taught in college that engineers are not allowed to lie. We can't fake tests or fudge test results and stuff like that. We can go to jail for that. We are allowed to be wrong. You can stilled be sued but stuff like negligence and due diligence apply. Those documents you sign off on are legal documents and can be used against you in court.

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Wnderer

10/27/2012 2:00 PM EDT

I recall being taught in college that engineers are not allowed to lie. We can't fake tests or fudge test results and stuff like that. We can go to jail for that. We are allowed to be wrong. You can stilled be sued but stuff like negligence apply. Did we do a reasonable job of checking our work. Those documents you sign off on are legal documents and can be used against you in court.

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federica

10/29/2012 7:22 AM EDT

People were heavily worried because of the recurrence of small earthquakes in the Aquila area in the previous 6 months. Popular wisdom suggested that a big event was near. These unfortunate scientists went on TV stating that small events cannot predict a big one just 6 days before the big one actually happened, killing people and destroying houses. We can at least concede that scientist should not give in to politicians, when they are asked to express views that are bound to be manipulated at a social level? These scientists of the "Commmissione Grandi Rischi" get a good salary out of their position of scientific advisors to government. They have a public role in society, by which they use their reputation and technical knowledge to give advice to society. Their advice is regularly interpreted socially and politically. Why should they not held accountable? People tend to believe them, after all, just because they appear so professional...

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LCC23

11/1/2012 7:14 PM EDT

The potential of holding scientists to predictions of events of uncertain probability has consequences that are huge.

Say for example the next level is to hold meteorologists responsible for damages for failing to project a hurricane hitting a certain locale.

Then, even worse, holding meteorologists responsible for predicting possible hurricane landfall, when it veers away and does no damage. Will the meteorologists then be held liable for storm preparations that were for naught?

I guess the comparison is not entirely fair. THe National Weather Service hurricane forecasts have cones of probability. From what I hear, the Italians in question suggested that despite repeated tremors it was safe and no precautions needed to be taken. Whereas they should have said, tremors are to present knowledge, no indication of impending earthquakes. However, earthquake probabilities in this area are finite and therefore appropriate precautions should be taken at all times, not just now.

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LJL1

11/2/2012 8:27 AM EDT

I visited the area only a few weeks ago. Part of the issue is that the government has done little to help the area recover. The delay in rebuilding has meant that large numbers of those that left while waiting rebuilding will never return. Locals say that much of the relief money has been "diverted". So blaming scientists smells like hiding from the real issues.

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Nando Basile

11/4/2012 6:37 AM EST

Since tremors are not clear indication of incumbent earthquake, we may wonder in the first place why to give salary and political responsibilities to ''scientists'' that, trying to master the unpredictable, don't realize the impact of their advice. And why we call ''scientists'' those that are in trouble because unable to make prevision, so failing the very principle of the ''scientific method''. The comparison between earthquake and weather forecast is unfair. When talking to the media, a weather scientist is a ''reporter'' while a geologist acts as ''consultant''. IMHO the comparison should be with some other ''scientists'' those running a nuclear plant for example. Chernobyl and Fukushima provide better comparison. Unless we don't want to call them ''technicians'' any ''scientist'' failing to do a proper job...
Actually the confusion comes from the fact that in this sad Italian history, international press tends to call ''scientist'' what we should actually refer to as ''political authorities and consultants, with scientific background, accounted to take people's security in care''. Seen in a such perspective, the verdict is more straightforward and no contradiction exists. No one of the convicted people thought to resign after the accident, they accepted their political role, so they must accept the consequences. Where is the need of calling the scientific community in cause for a professional fault?

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