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Himanshu_Gupta
would like to see a piechart of growth in different sectors (semiconductor) to ...
Cowan LRA Model
Hi Dylan (again) - I would like to point out that all the sales growth forecast ...
What's your forecast for the 2011 semiconductor market?
Dylan McGrath
12/13/2010 7:45 PM EST
The 2011 semiconductor market forecasts have been trickling in over the past couple of months. Generally speaking, analysts are predicting modest, single digit growth.
Still, there is a significant spread in the forecasts. The predictions for 2011 semiconductor market growth range from 2.3 percent on the low end to 10 percent on the high end. For reference, here are the most recent growth forecasts from several of the analysts we track on the 2011 chip market.
To get a sense of where some high-ranking semiconductor industry executives stand on 2011, I put out a call for their thoughts on the market. Taking a page from sports book odds makers, I framed the question by asking if they thought 2011 market growth would be over or under Gartner's forecast of 4.6 percent growth.
Though I cast a pretty wide net, I received relatively few responses. The reluctance of many executives to address this topic may be in reverence to the market analysts who are paid to predict such things. In a sense, they are acknowledging that it's a tough job and they might as well leave it to the professionals. Of course, the reluctance might also have something to do with our litigation-happy industry; executives may be afraid to put a stake in the ground for fear of being sued by investors or others if their forecasts turn out to be off the market.
Nevertheless, some brave souls did step forward to offer their thoughts on the 2011 chip market. Here is a sampling of what they had to say:
"Atmel will take the over on 4.6 percent growth for the chip market in 2011," said Steven Laub, Atmel's president and CEO. "Strengthening in the advanced economies with continued rapid growth in emerging countries should provide growing demand for industrial and consumer electronics products. On the supply side, although semiconductor wafer capacity has grown substantially during 2010, supply remains tight, which bodes well for stable pricing throughout 2011."
Despite the fact that some analyst—including Gartner—expect the memory chip market to contract in 2011, Mark Adams, vice president of worldwide sales at Micron Technology Inc., said he is optimistic about 2011 because "the market trends for memory are very positive."
Adams said the explosion of digital content means all devices—not just PCs—need to be intelligent, meaning they must be able to process and communicate. The growing use of smartphones and the applications they run translate into more opportunities for DRAM and NAND flash memory, according to Adams. The growing use and sophistication of automotive electronics also bodes well for memory, he added.
"While the economy has been tough to gauge, if we see some stability, we are encouraged that new application areas will generate IC growth greater than the projection by Gartner,” Adams said.
Next: Prospects mixed
Still, there is a significant spread in the forecasts. The predictions for 2011 semiconductor market growth range from 2.3 percent on the low end to 10 percent on the high end. For reference, here are the most recent growth forecasts from several of the analysts we track on the 2011 chip market.
| Mike Cowan | +2.3% |
| VLSI | +4.4% |
| WSTS | +4.5% |
| Gartner. | +4.6% |
| iSuppli | +5.1% |
| SIA | +6% |
| Carnegie | +8% |
| Semico | +8% |
| IDC | +9% |
| Semiconductor Intelligence | +9% |
| IC Insights | +10% |
To get a sense of where some high-ranking semiconductor industry executives stand on 2011, I put out a call for their thoughts on the market. Taking a page from sports book odds makers, I framed the question by asking if they thought 2011 market growth would be over or under Gartner's forecast of 4.6 percent growth.
Though I cast a pretty wide net, I received relatively few responses. The reluctance of many executives to address this topic may be in reverence to the market analysts who are paid to predict such things. In a sense, they are acknowledging that it's a tough job and they might as well leave it to the professionals. Of course, the reluctance might also have something to do with our litigation-happy industry; executives may be afraid to put a stake in the ground for fear of being sued by investors or others if their forecasts turn out to be off the market.
Nevertheless, some brave souls did step forward to offer their thoughts on the 2011 chip market. Here is a sampling of what they had to say:
"Atmel will take the over on 4.6 percent growth for the chip market in 2011," said Steven Laub, Atmel's president and CEO. "Strengthening in the advanced economies with continued rapid growth in emerging countries should provide growing demand for industrial and consumer electronics products. On the supply side, although semiconductor wafer capacity has grown substantially during 2010, supply remains tight, which bodes well for stable pricing throughout 2011."
Despite the fact that some analyst—including Gartner—expect the memory chip market to contract in 2011, Mark Adams, vice president of worldwide sales at Micron Technology Inc., said he is optimistic about 2011 because "the market trends for memory are very positive."
Adams said the explosion of digital content means all devices—not just PCs—need to be intelligent, meaning they must be able to process and communicate. The growing use of smartphones and the applications they run translate into more opportunities for DRAM and NAND flash memory, according to Adams. The growing use and sophistication of automotive electronics also bodes well for memory, he added.
"While the economy has been tough to gauge, if we see some stability, we are encouraged that new application areas will generate IC growth greater than the projection by Gartner,” Adams said.
Next: Prospects mixed
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daleste
12/14/2010 12:30 PM EST
That is big spread on the guesses. The good thing is that no one is saying it will be negative. I hope for the sake of our economy, that it will come it at the high end.
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Cowan LRA Model
12/14/2010 12:49 PM EST
Hi Dylan - I notice that you updated the SIA's 2011 sales growth with a new box (showing +6% rather than the +3.4% number you originally posted) BUT you did not delete the original percentage box from the listing
Mike Cowan, indedpendent semi-industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model.
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dylan.mcgrath
12/14/2010 6:42 PM EST
Thanks for pointing this out Mike. I've remedied the issue.
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Bill J SCIQ
12/14/2010 4:27 PM EST
My forecast is 9% growth for the semiconductor market in 2011, as I stated in my October newsletter (www.semiconductorintelligence.com)
Continued recovery in the worldwide economy and steady demand for electronics will keep the 2010 boom from turning into a bust.
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the_floating_ gate
12/15/2010 12:38 AM EST
I would love to see the predictions for 2011 in regards to :
unit growth
and ASP
you can be "wrong" on either one one and you can still be "right" when combining both.
From now on you research gurus predict ASP as well as units -
we need to raise the bar for the research gurus.
Obviously units will dominate 2011 while ASP "ruled" 2010
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Cowan LRA Model
12/20/2010 5:03 PM EST
Hi Dylan (again) - I would like to point out that all the sales growth forecast estimates quoted will have to be "adjusted" since they are based upon forecasts for BOTH 2010 and 2011.
The needed "adjustment" will obviously be a function of what the final 2010 sales result will be. This sales number will not be finalized until the first week in Feb 2011 when the WSTS will post (on its website, http://www.wsts.org/) BOTH the December 2010 sales number and the final month-by-month results for the other 11 months of 2010. Consequently, the needed "adjustments" to each forecaster's 2011 prediction will vary depending on their assumed forecast sales number for 2010. Therefore, the better their 2010 sales forecast prediction is the smaller the "adjustment" needed to their respective 2011 sales growth forecast estimate.
Mike C.
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Himanshu_Gupta
12/20/2010 7:21 PM EST
would like to see a piechart of growth in different sectors (semiconductor) to have a better knowledge. I also do not understand why there is so much spread in predictions from different sources. I believe most of them would use the same market data to reach a conclusion.
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