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t.alex
For enterprise use and for replacement of notebook I think a keyboard is not ...
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All of the comments neglect what is probably even more important, which is the ...
What's really missing from the Surface PC
Jim McGregor
6/21/2012 11:13 AM EDT
While many of the technical reviewers are still undecided about the potential of Microsoft's new ARM and x86-based tablet/PC hybrid because of the limited specifications provided, there are still several glaring issues that many continue to neglect. Yes, this is a shiny new device with a cool keyboard feature, but it is still just a device. If the industry has learned anything from the success of companies like Apple or Amazon, especially in the tablet segment, the experience is more important than the device and no hardware feature can replace the service or the content.
Not only did Microsoft not announce if a wireless carrier will support the device for mobile services, the company did not even indicate if any of the models would contain a cellular modem for anywhere/anytime access. Some may still argue that a percentage of the population does not require this level of service, which is not even offered on Amazon's Kindle Fire tablet, but with the rather expensive price tags Microsoft has hinted at, many consumers will expect as much or more than competing Apple iPad and ultrabook devices. And as a general rule of thumb, you need to make the device ten times better at the same price or equal at half the price to have a significant impact on the market.
With the Surface PCs using the same technology as many of the competing devices with just a few peripheral and aesthetic additions and hints of comparable pricing, the Surface PCs do not meet these criteria to create a shift in the market. I would also argue that the move to shared data plans by wireless carriers is going to make the support of cellular service a future requirement, not just a “nice to have” feature.
However, the most critical omission is the lack of content, the driver of the two best-selling tablets in the world. In a single quarter, Amazon became the second best-selling tablet in the world for all of 2011 with only a US release. Why? Because like Apple, Amazon has compelling content combined with being one of the most popular e-commerce sites.
The other device OEMs have struggled with an answer to the lack of content. The only answer Microsoft has is the Office software suite. While Office is likely to provide some attraction to consumers looking to use this as computer replacement or productivity device, it will not be a significant driver for the broader consumer market. In addition, the same support for Office has done little to advance Microsoft solutions in the highly-coveted smartphone market. Note that this completely ignores the issue of Microsoft competing with all of the company's OEM partners.
In the era of successful electronic solutions, the shining new device is one of three critical criteria, but one that is waning in the face of stiffer competition. As with all the technology and device providers, it is good to see Microsoft pushing the market to even more usable and competitive solutions. The design of the Surface PC is likely to have an influence on future tablet and ultrabook designs. Unfortunately, it is difficult to take Microsoft's latest efforts in the mobile segment seriously with the information released thus far.
Not only did Microsoft not announce if a wireless carrier will support the device for mobile services, the company did not even indicate if any of the models would contain a cellular modem for anywhere/anytime access. Some may still argue that a percentage of the population does not require this level of service, which is not even offered on Amazon's Kindle Fire tablet, but with the rather expensive price tags Microsoft has hinted at, many consumers will expect as much or more than competing Apple iPad and ultrabook devices. And as a general rule of thumb, you need to make the device ten times better at the same price or equal at half the price to have a significant impact on the market.
With the Surface PCs using the same technology as many of the competing devices with just a few peripheral and aesthetic additions and hints of comparable pricing, the Surface PCs do not meet these criteria to create a shift in the market. I would also argue that the move to shared data plans by wireless carriers is going to make the support of cellular service a future requirement, not just a “nice to have” feature.
However, the most critical omission is the lack of content, the driver of the two best-selling tablets in the world. In a single quarter, Amazon became the second best-selling tablet in the world for all of 2011 with only a US release. Why? Because like Apple, Amazon has compelling content combined with being one of the most popular e-commerce sites.
The other device OEMs have struggled with an answer to the lack of content. The only answer Microsoft has is the Office software suite. While Office is likely to provide some attraction to consumers looking to use this as computer replacement or productivity device, it will not be a significant driver for the broader consumer market. In addition, the same support for Office has done little to advance Microsoft solutions in the highly-coveted smartphone market. Note that this completely ignores the issue of Microsoft competing with all of the company's OEM partners.
In the era of successful electronic solutions, the shining new device is one of three critical criteria, but one that is waning in the face of stiffer competition. As with all the technology and device providers, it is good to see Microsoft pushing the market to even more usable and competitive solutions. The design of the Surface PC is likely to have an influence on future tablet and ultrabook designs. Unfortunately, it is difficult to take Microsoft's latest efforts in the mobile segment seriously with the information released thus far.
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tb1
6/21/2012 7:30 PM EDT
"And as a general rule of thumb, you need to make the device ten times better at the same price or equal at half the price to have a significant impact on the market. "
Apply this to cars. According to this rule a new car would have to get at least 300mph or cost $8k or else it wouldn't have a significant impact on the market.
Nowdays a smartphone is required to have an extensive application market and cloud infrastructure behind it, so you can't just build a phone with a bunch of nice features. You have to have, or be aligned to, a company with a major Internet store. Right now that's pretty much Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft.
Having unique and desire-able features can also get you into the market. With Microsoft, that is the ability to run apps across PC types (phones,tablets, desktops), along with tight integration. I can think of many applications that would -only- work with this type of integration.
Having a unique, desire-able feature-set will also get you into the market.
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Bert22306
6/21/2012 8:08 PM EDT
I agree with the comment about 3G/4G connectivity, in addition to WiFi. That is not something impossible to remedy, however. Seems rather straighforward.
But I'm not sure I understand the "lack of content" comment. What content is NOT available to plain old PCs? I can get to Amazon, Netflix, Hulu, the Washington Post, or just about everywhere else, with a PC, without needing any special "app." In principle, a tablet like the Surface, e.g. with a Win8 style of start screen, can easily do what I do on a PC, and it mimicks what the handheld has come to refer to as "apps."
The more this Surface emulates a real PC, and I mean a lot more than the iPad or the Kindle do, the more we can really claim to have arrived at the "post PC era." With a straight face!
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mcjw
6/26/2012 9:19 PM EDT
Supposedly you'll have 3G on your Windows Phone 8 device:p Tether away.
Microsoft hinted at expensive prices... really? Do you see 3G/LTE in the typically priced Ultrabook or the $500 iPad? Jim is reading "missing information" as "missing critical feature". A "the glass is half emtpy and it'll be gone tomorrow!" cry of an opinion. Mind you, having mobile broadband (and the expensive contract) doesn't make it "10 times better".
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tb1
6/21/2012 8:18 PM EDT
(I wrote 300mph but meant 300mpg--it would have to be 1000mph to meet the 10x rule).
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hm
6/21/2012 9:33 PM EDT
Probably, people will like Macbook Air as compare to Surface.
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WW Thinker
6/22/2012 7:33 PM EDT
Well built Ultrabook is better than the Mac Air. For example, the new one from Asus offers a virtually retina like IPS display (1920x1080) on the 13.3" display. Yet, it is cheaper than the Mac Air. Why comparing Surface to an inferior implementation like Mac Air?
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konda
6/22/2012 1:43 AM EDT
Microsoft should prove its ability in hardware(Win8 on ARM) and pull developers attention to add many apps ..i am sure it can bring lots of user experience(metro UI),LE-HID expertise(Microsoft accessories)..many more expected than competitors..must have Wi-Fi and 3G/4G connectivity..it's not too late to have considerable share..let us watch this space..app store,h/w design,integration of social networks(face book,tiwitter etc) with it's own skype are crucial factors of success..
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Frank Eory
6/22/2012 9:54 AM EDT
I'm with Bert on this one. 3G/4G connectivity must be offered as an option. There are many consumers who won't even consider a tablet that is not always-connected.
As for lack of content, Bert has a point -- you can get all the content you want on a desktop or notebook Windows PC, so why would it be any less with a Windows tablet?
The difference in the user experience isn't so much about access to content or apps (you know, the stuff we used to refer to as "programs" or "software"), it's the aggregation of content and apps into an online store like Apple, Amazon and Google have done.
But millions of desktop and notebook PC users have installed iTunes and shop at Amazon -- on a machine running Windows. They will still have access to those services or stores with a Windows tablet.
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WW Thinker
6/22/2012 7:27 PM EDT
Microsoft should not offer everything in a role model device (assuming their words). It has to leave something on the table for the traditionally PC OEMs to innovate. The most important wireless interface for any mobile computing device (i.e. except feature phone, smartphone, voice phone) is WiFi (because connection is almost always free, implementation is so cheap due to much lower royalty than 3G/4G), not 3G/4G or whatever. Why duplicating the 3G/4G modem if smartphone can act as the means to reach WWAN while BT/WiFi is bridging the mobile computing device to the smartphone. We should make the world greener!
I feel that Microsoft will show the 3G/4G option in another SKU when Surface is close to shipping.
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selinz
6/22/2012 10:05 AM EDT
It seems to me that this is destined to be a winner. Anything that has an tablet formfactor that runs windows software at an attractive price point get's me interested. Most of the apps that are used for the Ipad are essentially to make up for the fact that they can't run flash. Hopefully this will not be the case with the windows tablet.
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selinz
6/22/2012 10:08 AM EDT
Another thing that makes the ipad attractive is that you never have to worry about the price dropping! Sort of a built in high price advantage... It seems as though Moto has done that to some extent with their tablet.. To much less success... Will Microsoft control pricing?
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samfuller
6/22/2012 6:17 PM EDT
Reminds me of... Zune
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WW Thinker
6/22/2012 7:11 PM EDT
Perhaps Jim was on some kind of medication when he wrote the "... content ...". This is the first time that end-users are given a mobile device with twin personalities. I and many friends and colleagues have been waitig for such a device since iPad was launched 3 years ago. If iPad is chapter 1 of realy interesting mobile computing devices, Surface & WP8 and Win8/RT is chapter 2. Now that Microsoft has shown us what a chapter 2 device can be, OEMs can innovate by putting partnerships on top.
I am somewhat disappointed at Jim as I always thought that he was a visionary guy.
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t.alex
6/22/2012 10:19 PM EDT
This tablet is going to have MS office and more apps targeting at workplace usage. Has anyone seen the demo recently which failed? I think it freeze onstage:)
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chanj
6/26/2012 12:18 PM EDT
A successful apps store/ market place will help the tablet thrive. To me, it means a convenient way to buy games, small apps and books. However, I believe majority of the people demand better productivity software; something that they have been using for a while. I have no doubt Surface will acquire a substantial market share. Corporations would rather buy Surface to their employees than buying a Macbook or Google Tablet. Whether Surface will thrive in consumers market, only the market can tell.
Microsoft Surface is just the beginning like Ultrabook. There will be innovation. I have no doubt.
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Youself
6/26/2012 3:05 PM EDT
the author completely missed the point of Surface. I mean by a country mile. What the surface brings together is the two modalities of modern computing: content consumption and content creation. Content consumption is what the Kindle and Apple tablets are good at, and with Kindle and other good browsing apps, the Surface should not lag far behind iPad and Fire.
BUT, for content creation, esp in the enterprise, being able to have a full keyboard and mouse in a highly integrated fashion DOES make this a sufficiently productive replacement for a notebook, while the iPad and Fire do NOT.
Hence, I see this as the tablet I always wanted, because with this feature set, I truly don't need to fuss with hauling my laptop around for when I need to do real work, verse browse Facebook posts all day.
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jim@tiriasresearch
6/26/2012 9:58 PM EDT
Okay, let's look at reality here folks. The last tablet that made a dent in the market was the Kindle Fire, which is a fraction of the price of the iPad with a unique content library (books, music, movies, etc.). Microsoft is coming at this with prices equivalent to the iPad and without the content library. And yes, apps will run on the device, but the vast majority of apps are still being designed for the iOS and Android platforms, not Microsoft.
So, why should or would a consumer switch from a platform they are comfortable with for Microsoft? Without a really compelling reason, it will be difficult to generate momentum in the market and this is a problem not only faced by Microsoft, but also many throughout the electronics value chain. Because of the success of the Fire, many tablet OEMs decided not to release their next generation Android-based tablets in the US. Instead, they hoped to release Windows-based tablets aimed at productivity applications, which still might not be a bad alternative because Microsoft's does not have a history of success in the hardware market.
The point is, you have to deliver a compelling solution which includes a device, content, and services. Apple set the bar that others have to compete against or find a niche that that they can play. Amazon found that niche, but I'm not convinced Microsoft has. A shiny new device may capture someone's attention for a moment, but not for long. Just look at the Win7 phones.
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Bert22306
6/27/2012 4:28 PM EDT
Sorry, but yoy didn't read what many have been complaining about, wrt existing tablets.
The first point was, they only work well for consumers of info, not for production of anything. Therefore, those who want a tablet-sized device that is actually useful to them would leap at something like this. We have a Kindle Fire. I have very little interest in it. Mostly, we end up using it as a quick way to get the weather.
Second point being, what are "apps"? Apps are programs, apps are sometimes nothing more than a "favorite" or a "bookmark." Why do I need an explicit "app" to do, say, measurement standards conversion, if I can download any number of tools to do that, or even use the built into the Windows "calculator" for that?
Or, why do I need an "app" to go to Amazon, or CNN, or iTunes, if I can easily create bokkmarks for those sites on my browser?
If this Surface is functionally more of a PC that one of these other pads are, it opens up all sorts of possibilities that no number of "apps" can match.
The compelling solution here is, instead of buying a laptop, I might just buy a Surface. And then I could easily forget that those other limited tablets even exist.
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cdhmanning
6/27/2012 5:07 PM EDT
Why would you buy a Surface when you probably didn't do that with any of the previous Microsoft tablet offerings?
Microsoft has spent forever trying to force the familiar PC-desktop onto other devices (Start buttons on WinCE devices etc).
Then Microsoft bought Danger and got enamored with the tiles interface on the Kin device (which bombed like Zune). Now Microsoft is pushing the Kin-style interface onto other platforms: tablets and PCs.
Over the process MS have learned nothing. They still try to get only one interface onto all devices whether they fit or not.
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Bert22306
6/27/2012 5:40 PM EDT
Because the Surface is not a phone, but rather a tablet-sized and tablet-weight PC. (And it has a nice 16:9 screen, vs. the 4:3 screen on the iPad!)
As to the UI, from what I've read about Win8, it is adjustable. The "start screen" look, with tiles, is the default, but not the only option. You can also start to a desktop, and then run your so-called "apps" from the task bar or desktop shortcuts. OR, you can access the "start screen" from the desktop, just like you now access the "start menu" from the desktop.
With every new Windows version, you read many many complaints. But usually what happens is that people set it up the way they prefer, and then the complaining ends.
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Frank Eory
6/27/2012 7:34 PM EDT
A 3G or LTE-capbale Surface would likely cannibalize some netbook and ultrabook sales as well as some tablet sales, for all the reasons stated above.
In a nutshell: content creation as well as consumption.
Consider the millions of consumers who use both a netbook and a tablet -- one for productivity apps (content creation), the other mostly for content consumption.
If they can have a device in a tablet form factor that can fulfill both types of computing needs, I think many will opt for that one device that replaces two.
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WKetel
6/28/2012 11:08 AM EDT
All of the comments neglect what is probably even more important, which is the microsoft penchant for releasing "buggy" products. What software release of theirs has not had countless updates for a lot of different problems? Would you spend even $200 on a product that was certain to have issues a few months down the road? My point being: "look at the reputation and past performance". Does anybody really think that the product will be fully debugged when it hits the market? Have they ever had a product without problems? A bad reputation is often earned, and in this case their's certainly is earned.
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t.alex
7/6/2012 10:21 PM EDT
For enterprise use and for replacement of notebook I think a keyboard is not really sufficient. The question is can the tablet run applications that is currently running on notebooks? Of course MS office should not be a problem but how about others?
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