Silicon Valley Nation: The looming Asian cold war

1/15/2013 4:26 PM EST

Yes, I've been wondering about this too. China is making virtually all of their Asian neighbors edgy these days, and for better or for worse, these neighbors are looking to the US to help them from being overwhelmed.

It's a strange world we live in. For instance, look at Mali, and the UN Security Council, and how French intervention is being welcomed by most. Same sort of dynamic. The West needs to be extremely careful to avoid being suckered into all of these disputes long term. When we do, we always end up being the bad guys.

1/15/2013 9:56 PM EST

Brian, lots to investors to consider. Several points to add that could impact the global economy - and the electronics industry: for Vietnam, after the American wars, there was a war with China. 1979. Short but nasty. Cold war could turn hot quickly as China seeks to enforce territorial claims in the South China Sea opposed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and by extension other ASEAN nations. China is also in the midst of a very tense stand off over several tiny, uninhabited islands at the edge of the continental shelf near Okinawa. Chinese and Japanese naval and air forces are already bumping into each other there. Last summer's mass protests in China disputing Japan's claims turned up to heat on both sides and has had a big economic on trade and investment. Finally, the boundary dispute with India that led to war in the 1960s remains unsolved.

1/16/2013 4:25 PM EST

Last night I heard a pundit on BBC suggest that this Asian cold war will return China to more strict communism. This would be an interesting phenomenon, with I think not very good consequences to their growing economy.

Funny how when you think you can see a trend line forming, foreign policy can have a way of completely upsetting the applecart, eh?

1/17/2013 1:32 AM EST

China? Not sure - there is really no fundamental change in the governing structure from the Imperial period. Still run by an oligarchy whose primary aim is keeping power by promoting members of their extended families into positions of power. It is a kleptocracy based on 'social stability' a euphemism and a well-learned lesson from millennia of growth and decay of the central power. As the central power declines the 'people' (it's a 'People's Republic' right?) lose respect and fear of the central government, stop paying their ruinous taxes and no longer support the repressive social hierarchy. This, unfortunately, does not result in true reform but rather destruction of the regime by outside forces. Han dynasties have been repeatedly overthrown by outside forces coming either from the southwest (Tibet), the northwest (Mongolia) or the northeast (Korea). The last of these was in the 1644 when the Ming dynasty was overthrown by invaders from Manchuria (oh, excuse me, the Glorious People's Northeast Provinces) resulting in the Quing dynasty that lasted into the early 20th Century.

The current power of China is based on the gun - and, since the '80s, industry that is entirely dependent on external markets and finance for its prosperity. China has no internal financial structure as the rule of law does not exist - there is no fundamental guarantee of the security of person or property - any person and their property can disappear if they offend the ruling oligarchy. Unfortunately, the world has come to believe the myth of Chinese power. When this collapses due to internal chaos or financial disruption the resulting chaos may well drag Asia into an extended period of war that will dwarf the first part of the Twentieth Century when the German Empire collapsed and gave birth to the Nazi/Soviet empires which, in turn, destroyed each other in the cataclysm we call War Two.

wb/ss