Silicon Valley Nation: Electric vehicles stuck in neutral

1/30/2013 11:36 AM EST

Nissan Leaf...

1/30/2013 11:55 AM EST

" The way to make it cheaper is to make it simpler and lighter. "

No--it is expensive (and heavy) because of the batteries. The way to make it cheaper is to have less expensive batteries.

Economics pretty much solves the issue. When gas prices quadruple or battery prices plummet, an electric car becomes economical and more people will buy them. Solar power also becomes a lot more attractive. If gas prices don't quadruple, then that means there's enough oil to keep driving gasoline cars.

For now, the innovators with enough money to buy these expensive and limited range cars are helping develop the technology. If there's ever some catastrophic event like another oil embargo, they'll be laughing at us while they drive past when we're stuck in long lines at the gas station.

1/30/2013 4:43 PM EST

In the defense of carmakers - they are saddled with the obnoxious burdens imposed by the NHTSC to sell a new car for on-road use. This burden is also why all models of vehicles are running $thousands more than they should.

I'm not an EV fan, but with the scope of regulation on new car OEMs, we are converging on vehicle designs that none of us will be happy with. A business model like Local motors that skirts the federal regs or an outright kit is the only soution left.

1/29/2013 5:43 PM EST

In 2011 only 20% of energy consumed in the US came from coal (http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/perspectives.cfm). Beyond that, it is easy enough to redistribute how electricity is generated, so in 10 years electricity may be 20% or more from renewable sources. Electric cars can't tell/don't care how it was generated.
However ICEs can only use a handful of different fuels and none of them are all that great for the environment.

1/29/2013 6:59 PM EST

Irrespective of anti-polluting virtue or lack thereof, the fundamental problems with battery electrics continue to be lack of range and ridiculous refueling times. It's like you're hit with the worst of both worlds. And battery improvements are never more than incremental, so far.

1/30/2013 1:00 PM EST

I know someone with a hyrdrogen powered fuel cell car, and that (sort of) solves the refueling issues ---- except that currently, there are all of like 4 refueling stations in the US. So range anxiety is actually a lot worse with that car. Presumably, that could be solved, but at the moment, a battery powered car can be recharged nearly anywhere provided you have 5 hours to kill.

1/30/2013 4:13 PM EST

Sorry I had not seen where you addressed that, reportingsjr.

Bert, refueling times won't really matter when range is a few hundred miles. If you drive more than that in a day, pure EVs might never be for you.

1/30/2013 4:10 PM EST

Except it's not mainly coal-fired. It was ~50% coal a few years ago and it's less now, closer to 40% thanks to the EPA, the wind boom, and fracking for nat gas (that you probably love). Even if powered by pure coal, an EV would emit about the same CO2 as an ICE that gets over 30MPG, or better than the average ICE sold. And things only get better as the grid gets cleaner.

1/30/2013 5:20 PM EST

According to what I've heard, the amount of solar panel space you need to keep a typical electric car fueled is about the size of a carport. Pretty silly to burn coal when the sun delivers power to your driveway for free.

1/31/2013 9:57 AM EST

I have 2kW of PV that generates not all, but over half the power my LEAF uses, or about 6500 miles/yr solar. That's the one of the two key takeaways from EVs! One is more efficient propulsion; the other is flexible fuel sources from a variety of cleaner and cheaper fuels. ICE's are limited to fossil fuel or biofuels, which may be just as bad and are actually a very weak and inefficient form of solar energy.

1/29/2013 11:54 PM EST

That's a great point I hadn't considered: The replacement for the Chevy Volt battery is around $10,000 at the moment. A lot of ICE cars today offer virtually free or low cost service for 100,000 miles and the battery-replacement throws a big wrench in that selling point as consumers have become used to those types of incentives.

2/4/2013 5:36 PM EST

People talked about the original Prius batteries costing $10k to replace (oddly enough the same figure) back when they came out. Now, years later, the very first Prius' are beginning to need new batteries, and they can be replaced for between $1500 to $2500. Sounds like it's worth doing in most cases.

As far as "free or low cost service for 100,000 miles" , yeah... right... let me tally up what the service costs were for my Audi A6 Turbo for miles 60,000 to 100,000 (the first 60,000 were under warranty - needed to dump or extend the warranty before 60,000...) Those 40,000 miles were a lot more than $10,000...

1/30/2013 4:23 PM EST

Where did you hear that? Toyota BHEV NMH batteries are going much longer than 100K and owners have reported no noticeable degradation. You can also lease a LEAF now for $219/mo. and then let it go. Fuel cost per mile: less than half that of the best BHEV (Prius), and even less when gasoline prices spike. I haven't needed to open the hood of my LEAF for ANY maintenance in almost 2 yrs. So where is the EV takeover? ;)

1/31/2013 7:24 PM EST

The thing about the hybrids is that the battery is merely supplementary. The NiMH battery will inherently accept more charges than Li-ion. However, the real advantage is that they keep the battery out of the range where there's significant degradation. Because the battery is only supplemental, it doesn't need to go to the extremes of charge, where most battery degradation occurs. The systems are designed to operate between 40-75% of charge, and by doing so they can last exponentially longer. Hybrid car owners call it the "Sweet Spot". I helped my folks set up their new laptop, and it did come with a setting to keep the battery in the middle of the charge range to maximize battery life. They didn't want it because they wanted to be able to draw down the battery and get maximum use on battery power.

The issue with an all-electric or plug-in hybrid is that one really wants to get as much range as possible. A regular hybrid only has a battery and electric motor to supplement the ICE (slow speeds and to boost acceleration) as well as recapture energy via regenerative braking.

I have heard stories of hybrid car drivers finding that they ran out of fuel. These cars have a "limp" mode where they will run on battery power only enough to get to a place to refuel. I've heard of cases where the driver decided to drive it home this way, the battery was fully depleted, and the battery life went south quickly. It was not covered under warranty because the electronics captured this "abuse".

That being said, the batteries are covered under emissions warranties, although that's only 7 years and 100K miles in California.

2/4/2013 5:32 PM EST

How about a source rather than an anecdotal, unsubstantiated "what-if"? You actually KNOW someone who "abused" the battery thusly, it died completely in these two years, and they refused to replace the battery due to the "abuse" because they could pull the record from the car.

Sounds highly unlikely for many reasons to me.

2/5/2013 1:35 PM EST

It did occur to me that it could have been an urban legend.

I did a little bit more research, and there are reports that the console warning lights go crazy and inform that one really needs to add fuel before running out. Then it makes sure that the driver knows that there is no fuel. Once someone shuts it down without fuel and attempts to start it, it will give three chances to start with enough fuel before it shuts down and requires an engine code reset. There are reports that people might have been able to get up to two miles on the battery alone, although it progressively lowers speed (maxes at about 18 MPH).

So perhaps my original understanding was off. Turns out more detailed reports are that they are designed to keep the battery from depleting. However, running out of fuel is a bad idea. I don't know if Toyota will consider it abuse for warranty claims.

1/30/2013 5:13 PM EST

In 100K miles, the battery is likely to cost 1/3 what it does now, or less. Plus, with enough batteries being used up, it becomes cost-effective to recycle them.

1/30/2013 11:57 AM EST

(typical in UK)

2/4/2013 5:41 PM EST

"typically halving the range" - a bit of an exaggeration - I'd say more like "at the extreme tail, it MIGHT halve your range..." it's more like 2/3rds your range. Case in point, on a single charge, my Volt will break 50 miles all electric. In close to freezing, it might go down to 33-35 miles... I admit that I've never driven it in sub-freezing levels, but people were never meant to live in such places, much less drive! ;-)

1/31/2013 9:44 AM EST

When I'm in an ICE with someone else I like to ask what that gawd-awful noise coming from the front of the car is. And that wonderful "free" ICE heat in the winter? It's very expensive and being generated just as much during the vast majority of time when you don't need it.

2/1/2013 11:02 AM EST

Why would you have to wait to charge? The current EVs are perfect for commuters, which is what many cars are purchased for, so an overnight charge will suit a day's driving.

As for price, a prominent industry marketing study determined the crossover price where people would buy an EV to be ~$22k. The new 2013 LEAF price starts at $28,800 less $7500 tax credit = $21,300. Many states have more credits to lower it still. And fuel costs will save you ~$500/yr over those for a Prius.

Either people will be flocking to the car now, or it will prove how fickle and afraid people are to change, even if it's for the better.

Try one; you might like it.

2/5/2013 6:04 PM EST

I absolutely agree, Kris! I'm only arguing EVs relative to ICEs. Moving a person or two at significant speed in a 1-1/2 ton box is energy intensive any way you cut it! Unfortunately, areas like mine have a lot of hills, are hostile to non-motor traffic, and have very weak public transport.

2/5/2013 6:12 PM EST

You expect nothing but improvements and reduced operating costs, and yet aren't willing to pay one penny more to get them. Congrats--I bet you're a "winner" in society's race to the bottom.