Engineering Pop Culture!
My head is in the clouds, but will my feet stay on the ground?
Bill Schweber
6/10/2011 7:06 AM EDT
Unless you are living in a cave or under a rock, you know that the "cloud" and cloud computing are hot items this year. Apple's recent announcement (see here) reinforced how the cloud has captured imagination and media buzz. Closer to the engineering side, the June 2011 issue of the interesting publication Desktop Engineering--which focuses on CAD, CAM, FEA, mechanical modeling, fluid and thermal dynamics, simulation, and rapid prototyping--was devoted to the subject, with articles on how cloud computing will (mostly positively) and affect these disciplines.
What do I think about the cloud's true potential? To be honest, I don't know yet, one way or the other.
Here's why I am ambivalent: every year, there is a topic or trend (or two or three) which the pundits and media say is the "next big thing." The hype machine goes into overdrive and we hear and see it everywhere. Sometimes it is so; more often it is not.
But what bothers me is that this next "big thing"—whatever it is—is somehow postulated as the solution to all problems, whatever the problem actually is. One year it's Twitter, before that we had wikis, we've also had multicore processors, tablet computers, and social media. The list of hot items that will solve all your problems goes on and on.
Somehow, all problems map to this hot solution, and you can project onto it whatever you are looking for, as it leads you along (or you are led by it). Just be patient, they say: once this next big thing is properly implemented, then it will really, truly be the ideal solution for whatever ails you. People who a few months ago couldn't spell the word "cloud" are now touting its inestimable virtues and benefits.
I suspect the cloud and cloud computing will become another useful option and tool, one which engineers and businesses will choose when appropriate and suitable. It will not erase all previous storage/computing schemes. It will have its own set of virtues, vices, and tradeoffs which users will weigh as they decide if it matches their needs and priorities.
The cloud euphoria is closely related to another five-letter word I see in press releases: "ideal." When the announcement says the product is ideal, it should mean that all similar products will soon be wiped off the market, like the dinosaurs they will have become. Yet despite press releases to the contrary, I'm still waiting for the ideal op amp that obsoletes thousands of others , but I a not holding my breath
Similarly, despite the accolades and promises (plus wishful thinking and marketing hype), the cloud and cloud computing are not ideal. They may, however, be well suited and a good choice for certain situations, and that's reasonable to expect. Excessive hype does no one any good, except journalists who need something to write about, and those hoping to cash in for a quick buck.
Readers: What "next big thing" that will solve all your problems do you recall? And what happened to it?
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Etcherman
6/10/2011 7:48 AM EDT
The one big thing I remember is that computers will reduce our use of paper. We see how well that worked
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prabhakar_deosthali
6/10/2011 10:21 AM EDT
Very rightly said! saying that the 'Cloud ' is the solution for all problems is a hype. It is just another platform with its pluses and minuses. While it may reduce the cost of ownership for small businesses it may add worries about the security and privacy of their sensitive data residing on the crowd. Only time will tell how many businesses finally migrate and stay on the cloud.
Similar hype is being created for the Tablets with the prediction that their arrival heralds the demise of the good old PC. The PC has withstood for three good decades of onslaught of laptops, notebooks, smart phones and what not. It sure is going to last the test of time may be for another decade atleast
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Test_engineer
6/10/2011 11:19 AM EDT
Your column brings back fond memories of my old faithful computer instructor, Bill, from the mid 1990's. Bill had one opinion of Windows upgrades, Solaris, the 586, etc. He said it was all BS; just a moneymaking racket for Microsoft and Intel.
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David Ashton
6/10/2011 8:15 PM EDT
This guy Bill sounds like a man after my own heart. I reckon 90% of what 90% of computer users do (ie email, word processing, etc) could be done quite satisfactorily on a 386 running Windows 3.11. The other 10% of users might use the OS a bit more. Most of the hardware and software "progress" since then seems to have been on software bloat, having to have antivirus running in the background, etc...
And of course everyone HAS to have the latest PC and OS for status reasons....
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Joseph.Hyer
6/10/2011 3:49 PM EDT
Being a hardware guy in inproving amplifiers that could provide huge bandwidths using Traveling Wave Amplifiers (TWT's) the Solid State Amplifier folks said "stand back we will provide devices to compete with TWT's". Well so far we have waited for 20 plus years and the battle continues.As usual some specific devices lead the pack and the R&D needs are many.
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t.alex
6/11/2011 7:37 AM EDT
Perhaps Apple iCloud is trying to solve syncing hassle among their deviced.
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Robotics Developer
6/12/2011 8:28 PM EDT
I for one no longer get excited anymore by the marketing hype words due to overuse and under delivering. It is just like the commercials on TV, radio, magazines, and even on-line; they have become noise due to over use and limited bandwidth (mine not the medium). So, just like those annoying commercials that no longer work to sell the advertized product, cloud computing over hyping just gets ignored. Reality is that there will be applications for cloud computing and cloud storage, but most companies will not want their IP, data bases, and lifeblood out of their direct control. I would guess it would be too tempting for someone to hack into the new expanse of data storage or computing, given that what will happen to those companies relying on those services? Just wondering out loud. I do think that cloud computing is interesting and cloud storage an attractive idea, but I am not sure I would want to rely on it any time soon.
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cdhmanning
6/12/2011 10:14 PM EDT
Trick question: How many much music and video would you be able to store on the perfect MP3 player/smart phone?
Answer: None. You don't want to store music, you just want to access it. Storing it means downloading it and managing a finite storage on the MP3 player. A hassle you really don't need. In a perfect world, all that music would be in the cloud and you'd be able to play it without downloading. Snap a picture with your camera and it is immediately put into your online photos.
No single technology will ever cover all bases which is why there is diversity, but as clouding improves it will be able to do more and more and there will be fewer and fewer special cases that cannot exist in the cloud.
Anyone that can remember the transition of engineering workstations to PCs can recall an analogous shift.
First it was just documentation and email with programming etc still done on minicomputers (Vax etc).
Then PCs became programming workstations with CAD etc still being done on specialised workstations.
Then lower level CAD was moved to PCs, with high end (layout etc) still being done on expensive microVax.
Then it was just FPGA floorplanning left on big machines.
Now pretty much everything is done on PCs.
I pretty much use the cloud (in various forms: github, Dropbox, gmail) for almost all my admin and source control.
Clouding certainly isn't up to handling compiling and software development and might never be (except for smaller projects which are already clouded).
Never is a long time in this business...
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mac_droz
6/13/2011 5:01 AM EDT
I'm just waiting for the first stories about the companies going down because they lost all the data that evaporated in the cloud...
Why do you want your photos to be on-line the moment you take them? I don't as much as I don't allow strangers into my home.
We may not know it but many of us are using the "cloud" for years and as any platform it works well in some applications. I use yahoo e-mail (web interface not mail program) that I can access from any computer in the world. Works for me, but I would not like to do my CAD work in a browser and keep the files 10000 miles away. What if the connection fails? What if they loose the files? Imagine the deadline coming and then you get a message: Service is unavailable at the moment. Sorry...
So a cloud will be OK for the average user (www, email), not really for design work - it's just too risky.
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cdhmanning
6/14/2011 8:29 PM EDT
There is no single technology that does everything for all people.
Third party clouding is certainly not a solution for every organization, but for many organisations it is a far better solution than running your own servers.
Most small organisations don't have the IT skills and resources to run and maintain backups etc and these are functions which are cheaply performed by other entities.
Clouding does not necessarily mean putting your data on a remote server. Large companies are increasingly running their own internal clouds. The benefit of doing this is that if a PC dies it does not lose any important records since all those live on the back-end server.
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Yuanfender
6/21/2011 1:14 AM EDT
right! network connectivity should be guaranteed first. But eventually everything has to be on the cloud. Can't any see.. We are Evolving!
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Bob Virkus
6/22/2011 6:42 PM EDT
True enough. Just like with any social networking site I will be very careful as to what I store in the cloud. Music, why not? Pictures, why not? There's a whole bunch of stuff, however, I'd just as soon keep local.
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MindTech
6/13/2011 11:52 AM EDT
It's interesting that "cloud" hype is really all about server-based topology. Remember when having a PC powerful enough to run software without connecting to a server was the next big thing? Right.
So we've now become connected enough that we have multiple devices that need to share and access all of our data. Anywhere we happen to be. The problem is rarely about online processing, more about online storage. I doubt the cloud will solve this, and I predict that there will be several large data-heist scares.
What we need is a new paradigm in how we share and localize our data. I don't want to upload every photo I take, but I would like access to them from my devices (or other means) anywhere I am. And then provide me with a simple method of sharing the ones I want. Same with my music. I don't want to upload it to your server (which may disappear), I want to be in control of tags, format, and quality until such time as there is a standard and comprehensive solution to it. But I'd like to be able to easily access my library from anywhere, on anything.
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tjmannos
6/14/2011 10:16 AM EDT
Local storage is for chumps. I've got everything right here on the cl--what?! I lost my connection to the cloud?! Now how am I going to listen to Lady Gaga??? Cloud, why have you forsaken me?!!
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Duane Benson
6/14/2011 10:39 AM EDT
Remember the phrase "Office Automation"? Back in the late 70's and early 80's, that hype was all over the place. I really don't think a whole lot has been automated. Instead, we've just been given tools that allow us to do more work, and do it ourselves.
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trigoli
6/15/2011 7:49 AM EDT
Add "microwave lithography" to the list. There was much ado about it displacing optical lithography to achieve finer line widths. Then along came phase-shift masking as well as other techniques that kept optical methods competitive.
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KCJ2
6/15/2011 11:57 AM EDT
What goes around comes around. Does anyone remembers the days of mini computers where everyone had a terminal and the whole company shared the shared the same computer? I predict the "cloud" will bring this concept back though obviously on a much grander scale. Some of us will opt to maintain our own data bases but the masses will find the "cloud" easier and more convenient to deal with. Probably more affordable too once it takes off. Our challenge as engineers is to make it work. Improve security, redundancy, and increase bandwidth so it is fast enough to be practical. Just think, no more phone bill, cable bill, or security bill. Just the "cloud" bill!
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Bob Virkus
6/22/2011 6:36 PM EDT
Absolutely correct. When people ask be what the cloud is I just tell them we've come full-circle to old-fashioned client/server. Only this time on a much larger scale.
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resistion
6/15/2011 9:15 PM EDT
There is always a lot of skepticism toward the development of new technologies. This is healthy, compared to the alternative of not developing these new technologies.
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jneland
6/17/2011 3:55 PM EDT
Is it ironic that I'm typing this response into a website?
There is never a solution to every problem, much less a single solution to most problems. Yet, in some cases problems that were previously impossible to solve or now possible to solve . . . because of a new solution.
Cloud is raising the bar for what your customers will expect, and as a product designer you better be ready.
The expectation that data should be available with minimal hassle, that information should be available when it is needed most, that things should work seamlessly together to produce desired outcomes, is continuing to rise. Ignore it at your peril. Especially for people developing products today that will be released in a couple of years, “cloud” now means you have to evaluate not just the technology you can fit into your system, but the capabilities that you will be expected to deliver within a highly connected system where you may not control every component.
Today, because of “cloud”, your system boundary has now been extended into infinity . . . how you chose to employ that scope creep could bring you large rewards or leave you wondering what happened. My cellphone can now access a huge cluster to pull the latest maps, street names, imagery, traffic data, routing suggestions and even restaurant reviews, all within the maps application. Imagine the idea of delivering a game console today that was not connected to an online marketplace or service. If you can, then you will definitely want to put the thinking cap on before writing off cloud completely.
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lcovey
6/17/2011 4:57 PM EDT
I don't remember a single technology claiming a comprehensive solution to all problems. I remember lots of claims that any given technology was overhyped. Cloud technology offers a cost effective approach to permanent storage, but there are no claims to it being anymore foolproof than hardware storage. Anyone ever háček a hard drive crash? Anyone ever get a scratched CD that was unreadable? Anyone ever have a motherboard fail?
What the cloud does is potentially reduce the cost of many portable drives by shifting storage off the SSD on the device, which means you need less Flash memory, which means the device can be cheaper and more available to the general public.
Claims of a universal solution belongs to the realms of politics and health foods.
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WKetel
6/17/2011 7:06 PM EDT
Just wait until some evil hacker writes a cloud eating virus, and suddenly there is a shortage of all that data that was there a few seconds ago. Of course, nobody would ever be nasty enough to write a cloud eating virus, would they?
The fact is that if the only tool that you sell is a hammer, then everybody's problems start to look like nails, at least to the sales weasels. So there is a lot of hype about how it will solve all problems, but if one size fits all, it fits them poorly. That is always true.
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JeremeDDeng
6/29/2011 5:46 PM EDT
Totally agree.
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BicycleBill
6/21/2011 12:44 PM EDT
Looks like Scott Adams and Dilbert are also getting into the cloud: http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-06-21/
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BicycleBill
6/27/2011 2:07 PM EDT
Microsoft's upcoming "cloud" announcement, does this clarify or confuse what the "cloud" is? (See:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304231204576405563616351454.html) Or is it whatever you wish it to be, even if it is not? Do you care? Is it just marketing buzz? I dont know, but I'm sticking to my hands-on circuits!
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WKetel
7/1/2011 5:47 PM EDT
I concur with BicycleBill about the "dilbert" interpretation. Scott Adams is right on target again.
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W1PK
7/5/2011 12:00 PM EDT
Leaving my e-mail on my ISP's server is convenient enough, but on the other hand anything I can't afford to lose is on local storage. I don't put really critical information into machine-readable form at all, even in encrypted form.
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