Silicon Valley Nation
Silicon Valley Nation: Lobbyist optimistic on fiscal cliff
Brian Fuller
11/30/2012 3:01 PM EST
SAN JOSE, Calif.--The U.S. "fiscal cliff" negotiations should be
resolved within two weeks and entitlement reform addressed by
mid-2013, freeing legislators to reform the big technology-workforce
elephant in the room, immigration, a Washington lobbyist said this
week.
Frank Kelly, head of communications and public affairs for the Americas for Deutsche Bank, told an audience of industry executives Thursday night (Nov. 29) that the political rancor in Washington is muted right now, a promising sign for compromise.
"All these people have to get along. All these people have to not insult each other too much. I think what you're seeing is the insults are at minimum. That's an important thing to watch," Kelly ( pictured right) said during the annual SIA awards dinner here at the Fairmont Hotel.
In recent days, various Republicans in Congress--though not in leadership roles--are signalling willingness to compromise on taxes. "That's giving comfort and encouragement to the speaker of the House to come to that position and he will come to that position," Kelly said.
"I think you'll see a Bush tax cut extended six months to a year, but the president's laid down a marker: everyone gets the extension except millionaires," Kelly said.
Kelly said he expects a deal in the next 10-14 days, although "it's going to be very ugly." If that timing fails, he expects a "bungee jump" effect: "There's no deal before Christmas and then markets tank; they all run back and between Christmas and New Year and they get the deal," he said.
Moving into 2013, Kelly sees some version of the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations adopted.
"You'll see taxes go up on the wealthy, you'll see the question (resolved) of what happens to those between $250,000 and a million (dollars)--that still has to be hammered out--and entitlements will be on the table," Kelly said.
"Washington is sick of dealing with this. They want to move on; Republicans want to move on … they understand there's a roadblock and they are the roadblock," Kelly said.
They want to move on, in part, to tackle immigration reform. Already, since the presidential election, three Republican immigration-reform bills have been introduced into Congress, partly because the GOP understands the its stance on immigration hurt the party in the election.
"I moderated a panel with George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. It was like interviewing Cheech and Chong. A huge portion of that discussion--on their own--was immigration," and Bush and Clinton were "finishing each other's sentences" on the topic, Kelly said.
"They talked about the importance of H-1B visas, to which Bill Clinton pointed out--and you guys know--for every H1b visa, six new jobs are created," he added.
Related stories :
Frank Kelly, head of communications and public affairs for the Americas for Deutsche Bank, told an audience of industry executives Thursday night (Nov. 29) that the political rancor in Washington is muted right now, a promising sign for compromise.
"All these people have to get along. All these people have to not insult each other too much. I think what you're seeing is the insults are at minimum. That's an important thing to watch," Kelly ( pictured right) said during the annual SIA awards dinner here at the Fairmont Hotel.
In recent days, various Republicans in Congress--though not in leadership roles--are signalling willingness to compromise on taxes. "That's giving comfort and encouragement to the speaker of the House to come to that position and he will come to that position," Kelly said.
"I think you'll see a Bush tax cut extended six months to a year, but the president's laid down a marker: everyone gets the extension except millionaires," Kelly said.
Kelly said he expects a deal in the next 10-14 days, although "it's going to be very ugly." If that timing fails, he expects a "bungee jump" effect: "There's no deal before Christmas and then markets tank; they all run back and between Christmas and New Year and they get the deal," he said.
Moving into 2013, Kelly sees some version of the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations adopted.
"You'll see taxes go up on the wealthy, you'll see the question (resolved) of what happens to those between $250,000 and a million (dollars)--that still has to be hammered out--and entitlements will be on the table," Kelly said.
"Washington is sick of dealing with this. They want to move on; Republicans want to move on … they understand there's a roadblock and they are the roadblock," Kelly said.
They want to move on, in part, to tackle immigration reform. Already, since the presidential election, three Republican immigration-reform bills have been introduced into Congress, partly because the GOP understands the its stance on immigration hurt the party in the election.
"I moderated a panel with George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. It was like interviewing Cheech and Chong. A huge portion of that discussion--on their own--was immigration," and Bush and Clinton were "finishing each other's sentences" on the topic, Kelly said.
"They talked about the importance of H-1B visas, to which Bill Clinton pointed out--and you guys know--for every H1b visa, six new jobs are created," he added.
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C VanDorne
12/4/2012 11:07 AM EST
"I moderated a panel with George W. Bush and Bill Clinton...yadda, yadda..."finishing each other's sentences"..yadda, yadda.
So this certainly adds to the “the-fix-is-in” argument but more curious is what your average out-of-work American software engineer has to say about this:
..."for every H1b visa, six new jobs are created."
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C VanDorne
12/4/2012 11:34 AM EST
… they understand there's a roadblock and they are the roadblock,"
That's why we voted for them. And that's all they need to understand.
Besides, I hate this language. The word "roadblock" infers an impediment to forward motion. The Republican constituency does not consider higher taxes, stifling regulation and greater dependence on statists to be forward motion. Just the opposite, and rightfully so.
It is true however that the Republican establishment in Washington sees immigration as a major reason they lost. And they will no doubt waste their time and future political capital chasing it down.
I would caution against that assertion though. A study by some Manhattan Institute muckity-muck concluded that 75% of Hispanics vote D for the same reasons that a whole lot of other D-voters vote D. Only 25% saw immigration as the key.
But doesn't that relly confuse the issue as it pertains to the technology labor market? As it pertains to us? Are we really seeing a massive influx of South Americans in technology, or pressure thereof?
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