450-mm fabs may appear in 2017

As reported, Intel, TSMC and Samsung are separately pushing for the advent of 450-mm fabs by 2012 or so. Some believe 450-mm fabs will never happen, saying the R&D costs are too expensive.

If or when 450-mm appears, the first production fabs could emerge at the 8- or 5-nm nodes, somewhere between the 2017 to 2019 timeframe, said Dean Freeman, an analyst with Gartner Inc. And in total, it could cost a staggering $20-to-$40 billion to bring the next-generation wafer size to the market, Freeman said.

The price for a 450-mm toolset: $100 million!

But will 450-mm become a reality? Right now, it's a toss-up and it doesn't make sense, given the current economy. 450-mm will become a reality when the economics dictate the need for a new wafer size or when chip scaling ends, Freeman said.

If it does happen, Freeman outlined a possible timeline for 450-mm fabs:

2009: Constructive dialogue between tool and chip makers.

2010: Silicon wafer prototypes to determine how technology behaves.

2012-2013: Equipment prototypes.

2014-2016: Equipment ready for pilot lines.

2017-2019: Production would start at 8- or 5-nm node.