News & Analysis
Seven early predictions for electronics in 2010
Mark LaPedus
11/4/2009 8:04 PM EST
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- The electronics industry is recovering, but there is still some uncertainty in the market. Some see a boom year in 2010. Some see a double dip.
So what's in store for the rest of this year and 2010? Here's some early predictions from various analysts in different segments:
Semiconductors
''As predicted, the Americas region is the first to post growth for semiconductors from the same quarter a year ago, up 8 percent. Worldwide, the third quarter came in down 10 percent from 2008, but up 20 percent sequentially. This puts the market on target with our current prediction of $217 billion, a contraction of 13 percent from 2008. Databeans is also still predicting 2010 revenue will be up 17 percent from this year,'' said Susie Inouye, an analyst at Databeans Inc.
''The third quarter saw some slowing in the wireless sector towards the tail end, however, it is our view that this segment will continue strongly following some seasonal inactivity during the last couple of months of 2009 and into the first couple of months of 2010. Overall wireless baseband and RF revenue is expected to remain fairly flat at $6.2 billion during the fourth quarter from the same period last year followed be sequential growth in the first and second quarter of 2010 at $6.7 billion then $7.3 billion, respectively,'' she said.
''In the PC segment, third quarter revenue posted a 28 percent gain from the second quarter driven by higher prices for DRAM. For the year, this market is expected to be down 14 percent followed by a 16 percent increase in 2010 as demand increases for computing devices. Microprocessor revenue was up 25 percent from the second quarter and expected to complete the year at just under $30 billion. DRAM finished the third quarter at just over $6 billion, a 34 percent increase from the second quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be up sequentially at 4 percent, however this is close to 50 percent higher than revenue in the fourth quarter of 2008, a sobering reminder of how deep a hole the market dipped into,'' she added.
Foundry, PCs, cell phonesSilicon foundry
''Flattish 4Q guidance better than seasonal (minus 10 percent quarter-over-quarter). Leading-edge capacity fully booked and chipmaker inventory levels appear lean/controlled. Capex ramping aggressively,'' said Steven Pelayo, an analyst with HSBC.
''TSMC margin issues demonstrate difficulty in yielding/ramping 40/45nm node. (TSMC's) operating profit slightly below our forecast as 40/45nm yield/volume struggles pressure margins. 2010 EPS estimates unchanged (for TSMC). We will look to get more constructive should shares fall to mid 50s or visibility improves enough to suggest 25 percent growth and/or high-30s operating margins are possible next year,'' he said.
PC/PC ODMs
''Expecting 5-15 percent quarter-over-quarter (ODM) notebook shipment growth in 4Q with Quanta outperforming despite supply constraints. Lots of optimism for Windows 7 and a corporate refresh cycle kicking off in 2H10. Overall, 2010 notebook market to grow 20 percent with Quanta forecasted to grow twice as fast,'' said Pelayo.
In terms of branded PCs, ''very strong 3Q shipments (prebuild for W7/Golden Week) are expected. 4Q flat to up 10 percent somewhat weaker than expected (but off stronger than expected 3Q). Selling longer battery life with CULV base notebooks not as successful as originally hoped. Most looking for 30 percent growth in 2010 focusing on emerging markets,'' he said.
Cell phones
China's gray market wireless handset shipments are expected to amount to 145 million units in 2009, up 43.6 percent from 101 million in 2008, according to iSuppli. This will amount to 12.9 percent of the 1.13 billion unit global market for legitimate cell phones.
In contrast, worldwide unit shipments of legitimate cell phones will decline by 8 percent in 2009. By 2013, the gray market will grow to 176 million units. The gray market will peak in 2012 at 192 million units, according to the firm.
Kevin Wang, analyst, iSuppli, said: "Chinese gray-market handset suppliers have become so successful that they are grabbing share from major international handset OEMs. Exports of gray-market cell phones are set to rise to 110 million units in 2009, up from 60 million in 2008. International consumers in both developed and developing economies are being lured away from established brands by the low cost of gray-market handsets.''
LCD gear, fab toolsLCD equipment
While 2008 marked a record year in TFT LCD equipment spending, the combination of the worldwide economic crisis and the downside of the 'crystal cycle' are causing the equipment segment to suffer its largest drop ever in 2009, with revenues falling 50 percent year-over-year. But the equipment market is resilient, and DisplaySearch now forecasts 51 percent growth in 2010.
"The worst of the worst 'crystal cycle' in the history of LCDs certainly has passed. Rapid panel price declines from the end of 2008 through the spring of 2009 helped push demand further than expected. Additional strong demand from China is now encouraging panel makers to move forward with capacity expansions in 2010," said Charles Annis, an analyst for DisplaySearch.
"Q3'09 was good for most LCD materials suppliers and panel makers. But now the industry is moving into a 'wait and see' mode, cautiously planning long lead time capacity expansions, evaluating whether the global economy and LCD demand are back on a growth curve and if China will be able to meet continuously increasing expectations," he said.
Fab equipment
In terms of worldwide fab capacity in 2010, Japan will hold 26 percent of the market, followed by Taiwan (19 percent), Americas (18 percent), Korea (12 percent) Europe and Middle East (12 percent), China (7 percent), Southeast Asia (5 percent), according to Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, an analyst with SEMI.
''Japan's share of worldwide fab capacity (including discrete devices) remains unchanged in 2009 at about 25 percent, or 3.8 to 3.9 million wafers per month (in 200-mm equivalents). The world fab forecast shows that Japan maintains a strong position also into 2010. Spending on equipping front end facilities in Japan is expected to be about $2 billion in 2009 and may increase by about 70 percent to over $3 billion in 2010. Spending is primarily for 300-mm memory fabs,'' he said.
SolarSolar
''Our overall impression is that the industry is starting to recover from the doldrums of the past year. There was a strong sense of optimism and expectation for 2010 and 2011,'' according to Gartner analysts Jim Hines and Alfonso Velosa.
''However, the number of players chasing the same opportunities, particularly in the module arena, will leave a lot of vendors disappointed, and many sales and marketing managers having to explain the shortfall in meeting their sales quotas. Although we still see strong long-term potential for PV markets in Europe and the United States, it will take some time to develop, because these are construction projects that require a long lead time for the incentives and the permits, and in the United States, there could be delays in receiving federal money under the stimulus bill,'' they added.



