News & Analysis
Recovery remains uncertain but China is key, says survey
Peter Clarke
11/18/2009 7:04 AM EST
By an almost two-to-one margin, semiconductor executives identified China as the most important country market for revenue growth in three years, followed by the U.S. and Taiwan.
With the China market in their sights, 87 percent of respondents said they expect their revenue in 2010 to increase by more than five percent. More than half (54 percent) say their revenue gains could exceed 10 percent next year.
Two-thirds of the semiconductor executives who responded to the survey anticipate their company's global workforce will grow one percent or more in the next 12 months. Only one-quarter of these executives think the growth could exceed five percent. Eighteen percent expect no change in the size of their global workforce, and 16 percent anticipate a reduction in their workforce.
Executives were split as to what shape they expect the global semiconductor industry recovery to resemble. While one-third anticipates a W-shaped recovery, nearly as many (29 percent) expect a U-shaped turnaround, with significantly fewer (15 percent) anticipating a V-shaped rebound and (13 percent) what is known as a square root sign recovery. This may reflect the differences that are being seen geographically in what has also been described as a LUV recovery.
Half the respondents — five times as many as in 2008 — expect capex to grow by more than five percent and 45 percent, or twice as many as last year, expect R&D to grow by more than five percent.
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Chee Choy
11/18/2009 9:57 PM EST
China is definitely a vibrant marketplace st this time, but one thing, China import very little from other countries, only raw materials are their major importing items with some high end quality products to meet their riches group, also high tech products China do not produce. Other than that I seen very little impact China could benefit others rather do not worsen the world econcmy is good enough.
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nexogen
11/19/2009 2:08 AM EST
You cannot have technological unemployment in a money based system. The crisis will not go away unless you accept this and demand a moneyless system, or Resource Based Economy as some call it.
You know how fast automation technologies replace human labor, and that's the final proof our current system is out of date.
Planned obsolecence and deliberate product inefficiency is not a sane way to deal with this as it destroys the environment. There are 1 billion people starving in the world yet we have enough food to feed twice the entire population.
I dare you think more about this, research it, look up the work of the Jacque Fresco, before it's too late.
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