McLean takes good to be a year of 15 percent growth, which is his current forecast for a chip market of $270 billion. A great year would be one of 20 percent market growth or greater.

McClean's reasons to be cheerful one to 10 are as follows:

1) On Jan. 26, 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its worldwide GDP forecast for 2010 from 3.1 percent to 3.9 percent. This is a large upgrade to a forecast, which due to the law of large numbers, usually only changes by very few tenths of a percent.

2) On Jan. 21, 2010, it was announced that the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators was up 1.1 percent in December of 2009. The index had risen 8.8 percent over the previous eight months, the largest increase since 1983.

3) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) stated that the January 2010 U.S. manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.4 (any figure over 50 indicates growth). Moreover, the PMI order figure was 65.9, the highest since 2004.

4) China's manufacturing sector PMI was 57.4 in January of 2010. This was the highest PMI figure in China since the survey was started there in 2004. This PMI is greater than when China's GDP was growing at greater than 11 percent in 2006 and 2007.

5) China's GDP growth in 4Q09 was 10.7 percent. IC Insights believes that it is likely that China's GDP growth will be at least 10 percent in 2010, up from 8.7 percent in 2009. China is the world's largest market for cellphones and automobiles and the second largest for PCs.

Reasons 6 to 10 and links
6) While the first quarter of the year usually shows a seasonal decline some companies, including Texas Instruments, Altera, On Semi, have stated that they expect a first quarter sequential increase in IC sales.

7) Following the severe correction in the first half of 2009, IC unit volume inventories have been kept under tight control. Anecdotal evidence points to shortages and extended lead times on various ICs in the first quarter.

Unfortunately for the IC buyer (but good for the IC supplier due to increasing pricing leverage), IC supply is forecast to become even tighter in the second half of this year.

8) In 4Q09 manufacturing capacity utilization of IC fabrication on 300-mm diameter wafers was over 95 percent. Such high utilization rates typically lead to rising IC average selling prices (ASPs) and a fast-growing IC market.

9) According to SEMI, December 2009 North American semiconductor equipment bookings rose to $863 million. The December 2009 bookings figure was 3.5 times the level of March 2009. Spurred by high IC capacity utilization and surging IC unit demand, semiconductor manufacturers are expected to increase their capital spending by at least 45 percent in 2010; possibly by 60 percent.

10) After a lackluster 2009, PC and cellphone unit shipments are expected to register double-digit growth rates. Windows 7 is forecast to give a boost to PC sales this year. Moreover, the cellphone market is moving increasingly toward 3G smartphones, which contain higher IC content than 2.5G cellphones. Thus, the two main drivers of the IC market, PCs and cellphones, are poised to register strong growth in 2010.

Does that mean that more than 15 percent chip market growth is a certaint? It does not because McClean points out that a large-scale shook to the economic system could always delay general economic demand and this would inevitably affect the semiconductor industry.

Examples that McClean puts forward as potential "pot holes" on the road to 2010 success include: a possible spike in oil prices to greater than $100 barrel; a major terrorist attack that weakens consumer confidence and the economy along with it; or a major collapse of a country's economy such as those of Greece or Dubai.

Related links and articles:

Future Horizons sees 30 percent chip market boom

Why a sustained ASP turnaround could be a mirage

PC, phone demand strong in 2010, says SIA's Scalise

Prepare for 2010 demand surge, says analyst