News & Analysis
Analyst: High-priced hardware will kill Google Chrome
Rick Merritt
3/10/2010 8:53 PM EST
"Most people are going to have a notebook and smartphone and in the middle there will be for or five categories of devices and each category will have different attractions for different people," said O'Donnell.
Only 1.1 million PC tablets targeting business users shipped last year. New tablet devices like the Apple iPad have an improved user experience and are aimed at consumers. O'Donnell called them a wild card and said Apple alone could sell four million tablets this year.
Despite the fact the iPad includes an e-book reader, many people will prefer dedicated devices using E-Ink displays rather than the LCDs on consumer tablets. "I don't care whose LCD it is, it's a lamp and people don't want to stare into lamps," he quipped.
Mo bile Internet devices are the big losers in IDC's view because they have relatively small 4-7-inch screens, yet are expensive. "This is a category in search of a need," he said.
On the other hand netbooks, also called mini-notebooks, are a clear winner. Now that the products have evolved from 7-inch displays and Linux to 10-inch displays using Windows the category has taken off, shipping 34 million units last year and rising to more than 45 million in 2011, IDC predicts.
Good synchronization technology will be a factor that determines winners in mobile devices, O'Donnell said. He called for a portable universal ID technology that would let users easily access any personal content or service on any device.
"None of these devices will be successful if they are an island," he said. "The only way the world of multi-device ownership works is when you have an ability to synch across devices, so this will separate the men form the boys," he added.
Meanwhile a new kind of eco-system is developing for mobile devices, led by Apple and based on simpler applications. "We need to rethink what the software is, how it runs and is paid for," he said.
Another key piece of the puzzle will be data service plans that allow users to have multiple devices. Telcos hungry to raise their revenues won't offer such plans for some time, but users will demand them, he said.
There no way people are going to go for single-device data plans--one data plan, multiple devices is what people want," he said.
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rick.merritt
3/11/2010 12:42 AM EST
I'd like to hear more details about Google's hardware requirements for Chrome here or at rick.merritt@ubm.com
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dirk.bruere
3/11/2010 2:50 PM EST
Last year's expensive h/w is this year's cheapo
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SmokeNoMore
3/11/2010 4:41 PM EST
So is MS going to provide free software? If you have to buy a license, then that should be part of the cost. Customers don't break down cost between hardware and software.... they see a price tag.
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kr6x
3/11/2010 5:20 PM EST
I'm not sure I buy into this analyst's point of view. In fact, I don't even buy the notion that a vice president of this particular company qualifies as an analyst. Instead, he's someone actively trying to shape market conditions to improve his company's position.
As for the price of advanced graphics chips, they won't contribute more than a few dollars to the ChromeOS device's retail price. They pay for themselves in quality and performance. As for accelerometers: pennies. By comparison, Windows devices require more RAM memory, and more disk memory (ChromeOS specifies flash RAM and no disk drive), thus more battery current is drawn so Windows devices are bigger and heavier.
The proof is in the pudding. When these devices become available (ChromeOS netbooks and Windows tablets), compare prices, features, and decide for yourself what suits you. Don't let disingenuous marketeers dissuade you from your personal choices.
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Polarisgt
3/11/2010 7:45 PM EST
I guess every PC user has familiarized themselves with the efficiency and simplicity of Google products, at least for now. I very much doubt the stereotype will be broken here.
I used to work for a mobile device development company, and the biggest impression with Win Mobile is high royalty. I mean HIGH. The license cost per device can easily exceed the cost of hardware itself. Plus the high cost and high power consumption of Atom(All-Types-Of-Moneypit), it makes wonder what will keep them in the arena without some serious price-cutting.
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rick.merritt
3/12/2010 1:23 AM EST
Good feedback, folks.
I love specific numbers. Anyone care to share numbers for Win Mobile and Win OEM licenses and memory requirements for Chrome vs. Win?
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Polarisgt
3/12/2010 1:08 PM EST
See the link below
http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2008/10/would_you_pay_15_for_a_windows_mobile_license.html
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Eagle Driver
3/12/2010 4:39 PM EST
It sounds like Chrome may be the new wave dumb terminal. I do not like being tied to the Internet to get any work done. This will be the downfall of Chrome. Cost is huge, but convenience is also a key factor in the mobile market.
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jimbr
3/13/2010 6:23 AM EST
i need to do more research, having said that, isn't Chrome layered on top of LINUX? I think its a heck of a lot more than a dumb terminal. I also think we are in the midst of a paradigm shift. Its not that you HAVE to be connect its that you WANT to be connect.
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Sundar Srinivasan
3/14/2010 8:58 PM EDT
In consumer electronics market, people want it small; want it cheap; and want it to connect the worldwide web!
http://sunnyeves.blogspot.com/
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ughhhh
3/15/2010 7:47 AM EDT
As a non-American I am always surprised by the US-centric analysis. In Asia where many people already use smartphones to connect to the Web the x86 legacy is not relevant. Good synchronization is not relevant when cloud computing. This analyst seems to be an old fashioned guy synchronisinig hardware gadgets. Why would I want to do that if all my data is web based?
Then the high price issue. It is news to me that Intel is the cheapest CPU supplier. Any SoC supplier to the cut throat Mobile or CE market can match Intel's pricing.
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rick.merritt
3/15/2010 12:11 PM EDT
Dear Ughhh: Good point, there likely is a big savings from an Atom to a Tegra for example...and yes more data is going to the cloud although there is still a strong desire for lots of local flash and even a disk.
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