G. Dan Hutcheson, VLSI Research
G. Dan Hutcheson CEO of market research firm VLSI Technology Inc.
"I think the industry is going in the right direction. It's a lot better in this decade than in the last decade. I remember in the 1990s, when everything was on the [next-generation lithography] road map and no one would pull anything off.
"Meanwhile, we have an ongoing business that allocates so many dollars for R&D every year. And if you look out there for future nodes, you need to have two to three alternatives over your existing technology to make sure you can go down Moore's Law.
"As a last resort, e-beam will always write fine geometries. The downside is that it violates Moore's Law. Imprint is a very interesting technology; the technology needs to be developed. EUV, too.
"Then we have the existing technology, which is double patterning. But [if I'm a chip maker] I am going to spend a lot of money on [double patterning], because now my litho tool productivity is basically cut in half. So my cost per wafer doubles. And I am going to need twice as many tools, which is great for the equipment industry."