NAND flash to overtake NOR in 2005, says analyst

SAN JOSE, Calif. — NAND-based flash memory is projected to overtake NOR-enabled products in terms of market share for the first time in 2005, according to IC Insights Inc.

In 2004, the NOR-flash market was larger than the NAND segment by a 59 percent to 41 percent margin, respectively, according to IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.).

The research firm forecasts that NAND flash memory will overtake the NOR market in the second half — or most likely in the third quarter of 2005. For the year, NAND flash is forecast to hold 51 percent of the overall flash market, with NOR accounting for 49 percent, according to the firm.

In total, fewer NAND flash devices are forecast to be shipped as compared to NOR devices, but because of higher average selling prices, the NAND market segment is expected to grow more quickly and surpass the NOR segment in 2005.

For years, the market for NOR-based flash memory has outpaced NAND and other competitive flash architectures, primarily due to cellular phone handsets. NOR remains the preferred flash memory used in cellular handsets since it provides fast reads.

"However, given the tremendous demand for consumer and communications-oriented devices such as digital cameras, high-density memory cards, MP3 players, and USB drives, strong growth in the NAND flash segment is expected in 2005," according to IC Insights.