News & Analysis
OK, I admit it, I was wrong
Bill Schweber
9/5/2009 12:00 PM EDT
One of the reason I dislike making predictions as a journalistic task is that there is no accountability or assessment of how good the predictions were. No need to look back, just make another prediction. Interestingly, one of the true measures of a scientific or engineering theory is not how well it explains what has been observed, but how well it predicts and explains what has not yet been postulated or observed. [See Einstein's prediction on the deflection of light from a distant star, as the light passes the Sun as one example; note that some historians and scientists now dispute this account of his work and the experimental test, but most support it.]
So I thought it would be instructive for me confess: I too sometimes make informal predictions, and sometimes I am quite right; sometimes, I am somewhat right; and sometimes, I am not at all right. One which I was pretty wrong on was USB (Universal Serial Bus). When it was first announced, primarily as an interface between PC keyboards, mice, and other basic peripherals, all I could think was "just what we need, yet another interface standard to cause confusion."
Skip forward to 2009, and we have 5 Gbits/sec SuperSpeed USB 3.0 coming on strong, supported by a well-defined standard. USB is the most common and low-cost way to connect many devices beyond the basic PC: phones, cameras, USB flash drives; you can add your own items to the list. There are ICs, software and protocols, tools, and validation support for USB (wired, wireless, low/medium/high-speed) from many sources. In short, USB has been a major success.
So that's my confession of a wildly wrong prediction. And what are some of yours?♦
Comments
Work to Ride, RIde to Work
9/9/2009 12:29 PM EDT
Six or seven years or so back I predicted that Bluetooth would die. I couldn't see where people would want yet another crappy battery to charge for limited range wireless comms. What happened is that Li-Ion went mainstream enabling longer uses between charges and now the devices are getting to be ubiquotous.
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Santhoff
9/11/2009 10:26 AM EDT
From a technical perspective USB has never been known for its blazing performance, but it is good enough and tolerable for most applications. From a technical perspective 1394/Firewire is the clear winner. It's been interesting to watch USB, with ever new version trying to emulate and be more like Firewire. Even today take a USB 2.0 thumb drive (480 Mbps Claimed) and transfer a large file to it from the computer. Now take a 1394a/ Firewire thumb drive (Yes they do exist) and transfer that same file. Even though 1394a is "only" rated for 400 Mbps and USB 2.0 for 480 Mbps the Firewire drive transfers the file over 4 times faster! I made the same observation USB was so lame from a technical perspective it seemed destined to failure. Never underestimate the power of marketing.
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donatled
9/11/2009 5:54 PM EDT
After 40 years of watching one disappointment after another I agree with the previous respondent, and as a result I understand how your prediction ended up being incorrect.
Technical merit has little to do with success. If one looked backed at the crud that got the market share you could be forgiven in thinking that technical merit was a direct indicator of impending market failure.
The innovators spent money on R&D and innovation while the market leaders spent money on lawyers and spin doctors. The world as a whole lost out but fortunately most users are so technically inept to have noticed the difference.
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twk
9/23/2009 8:32 AM EDT
I thought Bluetooth would be replaced by a low-power, short-range variant of 802.11, given that standard's ubiquity long before Bluetooth took off.
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