Analysis: For Qimonda there's no business in DRAM business

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Norwood said the key to Qimonda's future was to watch what statements come from Taiwanese DRAM vendors who are also in trouble and have been looking for government bail-outs. "We have to see what comes out of Taiwan in terms of FUD — fear uncertainty and doubt."

"Ironically Qimonda could be saved if the DRAM spot price doubles in the next couple of weeks, which it could," Norwood added. "The spot market is driven by sentiment rather than a real supply and demand equation. A single press release can cause the [DRAM] spot market to double or triple and the contract market does move in response."

However, Norwood agreed that with semiconductor purchasing having more or less come to a standstill, due to the lack of general economic demand, DRAM buyers were unlikely to get spooked by the closure of a single DRAM company in the near future.

"People have stopped buying semiconductors and are building from inventory. Of course eventually they will have to start ordering to match supply chain purchases to the number of chips going into electronic products, but it will be at lower levels until consumer demand returns," said Norwood.

Norwood contrasted the political support for DRAM makers on offer in Germany and in Taiwan. "Why would a country want a DRAM company. In Germany Qimonda has Dresden as a legacy but DRAMs would be made in Asia. Would packaging and assembly be done in Germany? No, that will be done in Asia. In Taiwan a supported DRAM company also supports the test and assembly companies and the PC, notebook and netbook companies. So it leverages many jobs for each DRAM job."

"All Germany gets for supporting a DRAM company is a few taxes. Taiwan gets much more bang for its buck."

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