iSuppli expects LCD market recovery in 2009

MUNICH, Germany — Despite ongoing supply bottlenecks, vendors for large LCD panels still sell below manufacturers costs, reckons iSuppli. However, the market researcher expects an impressive recovery during the second half of the current year.

The market for LCD panels with a diagonal dimension of 25cm and more has shrunk over nine consecutive months. In the second quarter, the trend reversed: Sales climbed 41.4 percent over the first quarter. Already during the first quarter, low inventories and significantly reduced production rates caused tight support. Nevertheless, the manufacturers of those panels still sell them below their costs — even after the steep increase in Q2.

For Q3 and Q4, iSuppli analyst Sweta Dash predicts a robust rise of 29 percent and 57 percent respectively for LCD shipments, compared to the respective levels of 2008. For the full year, shipments are expected to rise to 518 million units, up 18.6 percent from 2008, leading to a full market recovery.

The demand has been driven by strong sales in China where a government stimulus program unfolded its potential. In the meantime, global notebook panel demand recovered and the global LCD TV sales have been strong, Dash said.

Despite this ongoing recovery, revenue for the year is expected to decline in comparison to 2008. Price pressure, in particular the below-cost pricing during 1H 2009 will cause the revenues to fall by 8 percent compared to the 2008 values. iSuppli expects a volume of $67.2 billion, down from $73.1 billion in 2008.

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