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ylshih
Tablets are in part a replacement for netbooks, but they can also serve ...
DrQuine
Notebook computers are small inexpensive laptop computers - their benefits are ...
Analyst: Tablets rise pulls netbooks down
Rick Merritt
7/7/2010 3:48 PM EDT
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- The success of tablet computers will drag down sales of notebook and netbook computers, shifting some business away from x86 chips and Windows toward ARM-based processors and Google Android, according to Barclays Capital.
Barclays issued a set of reports Wednesday (July 7) that run down the implications for the mobile supply chain of the rise of tablets in the wake of the success of the Apple iPad. If the predictions are accurate, the new mobile form factor could be the first to drive a measurable shift toward alternative architectures, chipping away at the long dominant Wintel duopoly in computing.
Analysts at the Wall Street firm project sales of 15 million media tablets this year, rising to 28 million in 2011, 70 percent of them for the ARM-based iPad. Barclays estimates 30 to 40 percent of the tablet purchases will be made instead of purchases of netbooks and notebooks, just as the netbook cannibalized a similar percentage of notebook sales.
Thus Barclays is reducing its forecast for netbooks from 19 percent unit growth in 2010 to nine percent growth and sales of 35 million units. It expects netbook sales will actually decline 20 percent in 2011 to sales of 28 million units.
Barclays is also shaving four percent off its forecast of notebook computer sales. It now expects 34 percent notebook growth in 2010 to 183 million units and 25 percent growth in 2011 to 229 million units.
Although the analyst firm sees no change in desktop and server sales, the tablet shift results in a lowered overall PC forecast from 21 to 19 percent growth in 2010. Notebooks are the fastest growing segment of the PC industry.
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goafrit
7/7/2010 6:40 PM EDT
It is going to be a market where new ones displace old ones. I do not think this is good for the industry where they are cannibalizing their products. It is competition to have new products, but having these products to have short lifespan could put the industry in tough condition on R&D. Many will follow Apple to table and iPad, but it may not mean that many will be successful.
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phoenixdave
7/7/2010 6:47 PM EDT
Costs of netbooks and low-priced notebooks are sometimes half that of current tablet computers. And limitations of tablet computers in the areas of word-processing, spreadsheets, etc. seem to differentiate the formats from each other, so I'm surprised that one would have a profound effect on the other. Users that buy netbooks and notebooks for primarily internet-based usage, such as email, web surfing, cloud-based applications might prefer the "touch-screen" interface over the standard keyboard/mouse interface, but I would think that "power users" (those that want fast computing time and running multiple applications at the same time) would not be seem to be very happy with the tablet computer utilization. Would be interested in hearing other opinions...
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DrQuine
7/7/2010 11:19 PM EDT
Notebook computers are small inexpensive laptop computers - their benefits are lower cost and smaller size and the trade-off is the loss of some power and functionality. The iPad (expanding upon the popular iPhone platform) offers positive benefits in terms of accessibility, applications, user interface, rapid start-up, and style - rather than simply offering a defeatured device for a lower cost.
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ylshih
7/8/2010 1:53 PM EDT
Tablets are in part a replacement for netbooks, but they can also serve different applications and customers. Consequently, they have the potential for expanding the market, not just cannibalization. This is particularly true as unit prices decline and consumers consider these for purpose-specific purchases rather than as a "swiss army knife" purchase.
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