Opinion: Microsoft dying? Don't bet on it

7/13/2010 12:34 PM EDT

With so much huge ammunition left out in the pockets of Microsoft not just the folks in Redmond but any one in the world wouldn't be running into the cave. I feel Microsoft only lost in one thing till now, it is in the music player. Zune never become popular enough to beat even sandisk music players. But considering a microsoft as a company making products ranging from a mice to high end server and with the ocean size of market in the computer software it is not going down at all!!! But I'm still waiting for something really a breakthrough microsoft product in consumer electronics.

7/13/2010 12:46 PM EDT

Bolaji has done a great job and brings out a lot of good points. After all, Microsoft is a software company. They may become one of the primary apps provider for iPad in the future. Who knows! The diversify product lines will surely maintain their momentum. As of today, is Ms already losing the battle of mobile OS? I think the battle is just begun.

7/13/2010 1:18 PM EDT

OK, I'll stick my neck out here. I predict the Windows 7 mobile will take the industry by storm. Windows 7 seems to have been void of criticisms of past. Further, the business model for Zune is attractive for people who prefer to listen to new and different music. It will be interesting to see if they can appeal to the "entertain me" crowds while not losing the functionality of the current Windows Mobile applications...

7/13/2010 1:50 PM EDT

Now, let me say that again, “For fiscal 2010, analysts forecast sales of the software company will rebound to $61.7 billion.” And we are not talking about their investment in other products, research & development, and on and on. Tough time for a company doesn’t always mean that they are dying, tough times are necessary to test the company and management will to continue to be creative and think outside of the box. Even IBM went through some tough times years ago, but they streamlined their products and services and they are now making a profit. No one will forever be the leader in all technology areas, I don't care how bright or how hard the employees are in Redmond, Washington. Competition in the area of technology is alive and well around the world. But I believe that Microsoft will come up with or purchase a successful company to get into the mobile technology game. Mobile Technology is still in its early stages.

7/13/2010 2:47 PM EDT

Microsoft is dying. They have lost over a hundred billion dollars in market captitalization since Ballmer became CEO. Any product not tied to their desktop monopoly has failed. Each failure - for example the Kin - costs enormous amounts of good will. When you buy a product you expect it to be around for more than a couple of months.

But of course the death of Microsoft is a good thing. The article started out with "the fears are...", which is amusing. Most people hope to see Microsoft disappear. We won't have innovation, competition, and a reliable and viable IT industry until Microsoft and its hydra monopoly are disposed of.

Microsoft's thrashing around and making a lot of noise is the sound of dying. Despite repeated opportunites and many people imploring the company to change its behavior, Microsoft has not changed. It is a company that makes me-too products, threatens and abuses its "partners", fixes extremely high prices to the most minimal service or product, and generally exhibits all the behavior of a bull in a china shop.

7/13/2010 3:19 PM EDT

At one time it looked like IBM was on its last legs.

7/14/2010 1:06 AM EDT

I have never been a big fan of Microsoft, but I have to agree here with Bolaji, they are too big to be out of market too soon.

with all the existing market share they have and other sources of income(licensing, royalties,..) they can easily make a come back to mobile market by correct acquisition or partnership.
they are not here to die anytime soon!

7/14/2010 10:19 AM EDT

I don't remember XBox failing? The last time I remembered, XBox is a Microsoft product.

7/14/2010 10:52 AM EDT

Good, common sense points, Bolaji. Indeed the mainstream PC business remains robust and Msoft makes money hand over fist there, and does OK in its other side businesses, I suspect.

But the crack in the wall is what is happening in everything below notebooks. It could take a decade, but given the lack of innovation from M'soft lately and the amount of it from Google and others it is starting to feel like a pivot point to me.

7/14/2010 5:34 PM EDT

I can't imagine what would happen if all the Microsoft products we use went away. With such a large installed customer base I wonder if Microsoft is Too Big Fail? Yes there are open office applications, Linux, MAC OS and apps but with such a huge inventory of customers that may not want to relearn a new software application or a new OS it seems unlikely in the PC world that MS would go away. Now in phones, handhelds maybe the competition is faster or ready now and will gain advantage over MS but I wonder how much development is going on behind the curtain at MS??

7/15/2010 8:06 AM EDT

MS has too many fingers in too many pies to be dying. Transforming, maybe, adapting definitely.

MS always botches their first few attempts at something but they have the money, determination and thick skins to take it on the chin, look at what everyone else is doing, then do it better. Not necessarily technically better, but a better fit for what people want.

Anyone remember Windows 1 and 2? Windows 3 took the world by storm, not because it was technically better than the competition but because it allowed a gentle transition from command line to GUI.

What about internet explorer? The first versions were rubbish, yet it progressed into be a decent enough browser. Ok Firefox and Chrome are arguably better but it is often a matter of taste.

WinG anyone? Every non-proprietary (ie not manufacturer linked) game is written using DirectX.

Then there are the consoles, the xbox was ok and managed a happy last place in the console placings. The xbox360 is second, beating the mighty playstation by a healthy margin (http://www.vgchartz.com/).

The list goes on...unfortunately they are not dead or I believe even dying.

7/15/2010 3:15 PM EDT

Open-source software and new operating system alternatives obviously will bite into the available market, but it's difficult to imagine the complete demise of Microsoft. Product miscues, becoming too comfortable with your current market penetration and current technology level and lack of innovation, and the "we're too big to fail" attitude has proven to be an anchor on the necks of other large and innovative technology companies in the past. Market leadership sometimes stifles internal innovation and creates "tunnel vision". As a result, R&D development is stifled and just focused on improving the core product areas and not bring in innovative new products outside of the core business areas, which can be very damaging in the fast-changing technology world. Microsoft may have become too comfortable with their established position and core business areas. And they may have developed an engineering and organizational infrastructure that may not allow them to easily evolve past their established market area. Google is a good example of a company that has successfully branched out into new and innovative areas.

7/19/2010 6:52 PM EDT

I do not see Microsoft biting the dust any time soon, or in the future for that matter. One only needs to ponder the extent of Microsoft's stranglehold on most of our digital universe to realise how very alive they are. Almost all corporations around the world run Microsoft OS and Office applications. The same goes for almost everyone around the world. Besides, the PC is not going to die any time soon - it will only evolve into different devices - for instance laptops and tablet computers are just PCs of a different form.

However, it is the 'evolution' process Microsoft needs to take more control of. Microsoft has always had to wait for hardware companies to come up with innovative devices (the HPs, DELL etc.). This is where Apple has a slight advantage - they are both a hardware and software company. For instance, it has become evident that a major hardware industry Microsoft missed out on is the mobile phone industry. Thankfully, at least one traditional computer devices manufacturer (DELL) has come out with a mobile phone of its own. Although, it is important to mention that the phone was designed by HTC, which underscores the fact that Microsoft and its partners (DELL, HP etc) do not know how to make mobile phones. Regardless, will the phone challenge the iPhones, the Blackberrys and the HTCs?

So my opinion is: Microsoft is not destined to die, but it can transform itself again if it takes on a more active role in hardware devices industry (it has already done that with the XBox). The main thing that should be on Steve Balmer's mind is that: "Computing is Wireless Communication". So Microsoft's growth will strongly depend on what new devices their partners (DELL, HP etc.) are able to create, otherwise, it may very well remain a steady cashcow, with little or no growth.

7/22/2010 1:08 AM EDT

Microsoft may not die, but it certainly have very tough competition.

7/27/2010 6:39 PM EDT

Nobody should seriously contemplate the demise of Microsoft. It is just going to be one player among many, and thank Goodness for that!

7/28/2010 11:20 PM EDT

I can not see the future, because I don’t have a magic crystal ball. I can guess, however, what it would come. To say so, I want to see kids what they are using and thinking.

When I talked with kids, they don’t know and care about MSProduct in their PC. They just think that it is always there and supposed to be there. From their view, PC (or Computer on their desk) is just a gate to the world (of network/Internet/Website/Facebook/Google/Game/Netflix and going and going.). Their definition of computer and software is a whole network, but just PC or an application.

If MS is not trying to get off from those boxes, or other firm wants to show up their revolution product for kids to use their everyday to the world, they will rule the world for the next decade.

7/29/2010 7:10 PM EDT

Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer says his company will enter the tablet PC market. This was expected although some critics have pointed out Microsoft would be entering the game late. Nobody knows how this is going to play out but it is obvious Microsoft cannot afford to yield this new playing ground to anyone. It has an edge and can piggyback on its already large share in the PC market. The tablet PC or iPad has a fancy name but at heart it is still a computing device and Microsoft has a role to play as more manufacturers pile in.

Apple is in for the fight of its iLife in the iPad or tablet PC market. Remember Microsoft's foray into the browser market? It went in late but eventually tore into Netscape Navigator's market share and beat its browser rivals into a pulp. It may be different in the tablet PC market. Apple is not Netscape. It has a large following and will find new ways to keep its market share and defy Microsoft. Will Microsoft eventually dominate the tablet PC operating system market? It is possible but not without a tough fight.

7/30/2010 5:19 PM EDT

It doesn't matter if Microsoft lives or dies, to me. I started to switch away from them 10 years ago, and am almost 100% away now. When their famous "update" to Vista killed one of my systems (Microsoft blew me off with a new Vista CD--thanks for nothing), I started using Linux more earnestly. Haven't regretted it. The one cell phone I ever had that ran Windows was the only one that ever crashed on me.

8/3/2010 7:04 PM EDT

Year after year Microsoft releases products that one reason or another fail:
*Zune Media Player - lack of coolness/fake hipster appeal (see any Apple media product).
*Kin Phone - no apps, no games, questionable marketing campaign.

But the bottom line is Microsoft's OS' are 90% of the desktop market and that's a cash cow. Plus they bundle their own products with the OS (FTC must be taking a nap) that are also questionable:
*MS Office 07 - horrible UI
*Any version of Internet Explorer - massive security leaks/ripping off of features (see tabs).

But once in a while with all their money they hit the jackpot:
*Halo with XBOX

There's no way that Windows is currently going away, but we can make small strides and move to more open source technologies such as Firefox (web browser), OpenOffice (desktop applications) & LAMP (web development).

8/4/2010 4:01 AM EDT

It seems improbable that Microsoft would die in the foreseeable future. They are too much a part of the computing infrastructure and to pose their death would also require posing the death of large segments of the hardware and software food chain. That being said, their growth rate can be much less and that is essentially what the loss in stock market value suggests. The problem Microsoft has is that none of their new businesses has the size and profitability of their core. Google has the same problem in finding a high-growth and profit complement to the internet search business. Apple has stood out recently for having successes similar or larger than their core Mac business.

8/6/2010 12:55 PM EDT

Microsoft has always been what some people call a "fast follower". In most areas they do not innovate, but bring out competiting products once a market is established--and crush that market.

And to this end they used their dominance in the underlying OS to create advantages. Now they do not own, nor are aligned with the underlying hardware, nor do they own the OS for devices outside personal PCs.

The poster MHK_#1 makes a good point. The current generation of teenagers and those even sligthly older know no such thing nor product loyality to something called "Microsoft". They are not interested in helping MS manage Windows after paying the price a decent cell phone for it by having to understand the underlying OS to achieve adequate performance.

They want a mobile applications engine which Apple has valided with the iPhone.

Here is a telling fact my son brought home one day about where electronic "things" are going. He went to a web building class and instructor said that only in the US are the majority of website hits done through a PC. The rest of the world is doing it with some sort of mobile device. I believe it. My son and his friends only use the PC as a "homework engine". The more applications get on their phones, the more they use them.

But MS has money, and if they want a role in this world, they will have to do something drastic like take over ARM or develop their own version of Linux to recapture the underlying system.

8/7/2010 5:26 PM EDT

Maybe Microsoft is now incapable of dying, like a zombie or something. Maybe someday we'll talk about the date when Microsoft first became self-aware, like Colossus in the Forbin Project.

8/9/2010 3:48 AM EDT

Pubs I dont think Microsoft will ever take over ARM because (1) it isnt in anyway related to the products MS offers, and (2) even if it did try to do business in hte CPU market, ARM's key licencees would not lae that happen. For instance when Apple snapped up something like 15% of Imagination's shares Intel came forward and bought almost similar number of shares all just to ensure no one big player has monopoly over its technology. It is cruicial that companies with good technology capable of becoming industry leading should be left to run themselves rather than be aquired which in most ways would be restrictive. But I agree as you've pointed out, MS will need to constantly adapt its business if it wants to maintain its position as a provider of solutions in not just the PC market, but also in games, mobile etc, which I'm sure they are aware of.

8/11/2010 8:55 AM EDT

Companies who are dedicated to efficiency and productivity, not only for themselves but also for their customers, they are the ones who will continue to thrive. Microsoft is no exception. There is little doubt that Microsoft will still be around in ten years but doing what? How about an operating system that is 100 percent virus proof? How about an operating system that is hacker proof? How about an operating system that supports the new unERP technologies?

I do belive Microsoft is a long way off the mark when it comes to accomplishing any of these. There is one thing I understand very well about business. If you are not continually making your services better, someone else will.

The Microsoft operating system has been arond for a long time and deep down underneath the covers, it has not changed a great deal except for delivery methodology and complexity. unERP technologies are now many years ahead of what will ever be possible in Microsoft's current operating system, at least with Microsoft systems current level of engineering and performance. Changing the operating system and building the application to catch to the unERP for business appliucations is at least a twenty year project. I wonder how much money Microsoft really wants to throw at that? I suggest they stick with desk top tools. They definitely know that market extremely well.

8/15/2010 7:11 AM EDT

MICROSOFT WILL NEVER BE OUT OF MARKET.TO ME,MICROSOFT IS INTERNET.

8/19/2010 11:20 AM EDT

Microsoft Research has some of the coolest people/inventors. I presume that these fellows are working om great things to be used in the future roadmap.

BTW most people don’t even know that Leslie Lamport the person behind Latex works now at Microsoft Research.

8/19/2010 5:38 PM EDT

I think Microsoft will survive post-PC era. They have made huge money in past from their monopoly.

8/20/2010 2:14 AM EDT

Windows 7 is pretty good and Microsoft Office is really good. Any comparison of open office or google docs to Office is insane. Office is far far ahead of the competition. Microsoft Exchange is deeply entrenched in corporations. I am not looking for their demise. IE wiped off netscape and the current IE version is pretty competitive with firefox (BTW, who made any money out of browsers?). I switched fast to IE when netscape was the king and faster to firefox when it made its entry. However I find IE8 equally good (mostly because of firefox's addons slowing it down).

Any single company's domination is not good for the market whether it is Microsoft, Google or Apple. If ipad continues to dominate you will continue to pay premium on everything. They will keep a closed ecosystem and prices will never come down. I do not find it in consumer's interest to be a fanboy or hater.

8/20/2010 2:32 PM EDT

From an engineer's point of view, Microsoft products keep moving farther and farther away from being useful for engineering development. All of the improvements I see are geared towards average consumers and business administration.

In the days of DOS, the PC/DOS combination while far from perfect did support the needs of the engineering lab quite well. Modern versions of Windows are simply not real-time enough for hard-core engineering use and is simply too difficult to program for and get the performance required to interface well to custom or unusual hardware or communications interfaces.

So while Microsoft may not be near death, as far as the engineering world is concerned it might as well be.

In my humble opinion, it's way past time for vendors of engineering-oriented software tools to make a mass migration to an OS that they (and we engineers) can depend on, and that won't radically change with the next release. I'd call Linux the best candidate.

Believe it or not, I still keep a DOS PC around for those times when I need to be able to harness the FULL power of a PC for customs engineering apps that I use in the lab. I'm not inclined to want to learn how to program at "ring zero" just so that I can use Windows to do the same thing.

8/26/2010 3:51 AM EDT

MS won't be out soon for one reason, Bill Gates still holds a big share and still works there ... 1day/week.
the same old guy who beat steve jobs many years ago is still around, so don't bet it ll lose soon.

only if Bill suddenly disappears, then this comp might just fall apart hopelessly, like nortel etc...

8/31/2010 5:58 PM EDT

Microsoft is not disappearing soon. They are definitely being challenged and XBox excepted their forays in consumer products have not panned out. Most above have commented on the issues they have been having. Their challenge has been too many fronts at one time and one cannot be master of everything and it could risk being master of none. Apple expands sequentially once they own a product offering, and this is a more deliberate and focused strategy without being limited by focus. But even Apple was at the risk of disappearing when they lost their way (around the time they lost Steve Jobs BTW). There is a chance That Microsoft can re-invent its product definition and approach and they are for sure striving to achieve and succeed given the Microsoft enthusiasm and having a pile of cash and resources can go a long way if it is properly re-targeted. My feeling is if they look at better user interfaces (GUI, product design), rein in the code bloatware, and improve the quality of releases they can continue to be contenders. Moving the Office into a web based solution will help at least in terms of user acceptance (not sure about revenue impact). Their challenge is fighting on too many fronts with too many strong providers, some with free offerings (Google, Apple, Salesforce, Oracle, Sony) and they do have a customer satisfaction issue coupled with a perception of monopolistic behavior and overpricing. Strangely Apple, gets away with this similar perception possibly due to compelling products.

9/1/2010 2:13 AM EDT

Cool article. Usually, these “Linux kills Microsoft on the desktop” predictions are made at the beginning of the year. It is refreshing to see such a prediction welcoming spring for a change. Hoping to see the same initiative next year.The blog is up I can say I really see this being Microsoft ends. Well then there is no doubt that today the company has come Microsoft other than too many.
http://acaiadvancedcleanse.org/

9/2/2010 9:37 PM EDT

You have to be a brave man (since all women are already brave) to write off a company like Microsoft. I fully agree. Even if the PC era ends (which I’m not so sure), Microsoft is too strong a company to die just because the sales of computers have slowed down.

Microsoft has evolved significantly over the last few years. Bing has caused a few jitters at Google and Sony is increasingly worried about the upcoming Xbox releases. Though Windows may still be Microsoft’s best selling product, it is no longer the only bread earner for the company.

While I agree that Microsoft has failed miserably on various avenues – Zune, Windows Mobile, Kin phones, but then “To err is human”. I think it’s foolish to write off a company of the stature of Microsoft.

- Keith Schaub

9/3/2010 12:43 AM EDT

Considering how many different areas they have their hands in, I agree that MS is not going away any time soon. Microsoft will probably come up with something that they haven't done before to see where it goes. Like they did came with their own search engine. I agree not all MS products are appealing. For example, the newest MS Office package is horrible to see the least. I have used MS word and excel 2010 and UI is uncessarily difficult. I don't know what the people at Redmond were thinking when they made it. However, Power Point 2010 is much better than the earlier version.

All in all, I don't think MS going away anytime soon. Considering the money they have in hand, they can buy out startups or other small companies to better their products and increase reach in the market.

9/25/2010 2:25 PM EDT

Microsoft has too huge cash reserves to die, most of us agree that it hasn't been innovating recently or the products usually have tough time to pass the beta, but then their business model is strong and the customer base is so huge to even think of its demise