Chip industry Q2 to show 9.4% growth, says analyst

LONDON — Analyst Mike Cowan is predicting the actual global sales of semiconductors in June will be $28.291 billion in June, equating to a three-month average of $25.23 billion.

This would result in a second quarter worth $75.69 billion some 9.4 percent ahead of the first quarter and 44.3 percent ahead of the sales in the second quarter of 2009, according to figures from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization.

A 9.4 percent sequential jump would be high compared with the historical average of Q2/Q1 which stands at 2.9 percent for the last ten years.

However a lot of that strength is already "baked in" in terms of the results from April and May. On a monthly basis Cowan's prediction for June provides for a 17.8 percent sequential rise, which is on the low side of the average figure. Over the last ten years June sales have been 22.8 percent ahead of those of May and never lower than the 2009 sequential rise of 18.7 percent.

Cowan is predicting that 2010 global semiconductor sales will come in at $304.44 billion, 34.5 percent head of sales in 2009, although his linear regression analysis does not take into account limits on manufacturing capacity that may prevent the usual sequential growth in the second half of the year.

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